The hallowed halls of Cooperstown welcomed three new members this year, as Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner earned their bronze plaques. But with the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame announcement in the books, it’s never too early to look ahead. Which baseball legends are poised to receive their call to the hall over the next five years?
Sizing Up the Next Five Hall Classes
To project the upcoming Cooperstown crops, we turn to a metric called HALLAXE. This system blends three key measures of a player’s career value – their 5-year peak, 10-year prime, and overall body of work – into a weighted average. Historically, the typical Hall of Famer scores around 145 on the HALLAXE scale.
By comparing each candidate to a customized peer group and analyzing historical voting patterns, HALLAXE allows us to estimate their odds of eventual enshrinement. Here’s a year-by-year look at the most likely inductees:
2026: Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones Break Through
This year’s near-misses, Carlos Beltran (70.3%) and Andruw Jones (66.2%), should have no trouble crossing the 75% threshold in 2026. Beltran’s HALLAXE of 148 and Jones’ 151 put them firmly in Cooperstown territory, with over 80% of their respective peer groups enshrined.
Based on past voting patterns, Beltran has a 90% chance of induction next year, with Jones close behind at 92%.
The only question is if any voters still hold Beltran’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal against him. But his on-field resume should ultimately win out.
2027: Chase Utley Stays the Course
Chase Utley’s advanced metrics make him a sabermetric darling, but his traditional counting stats could slow his path. Still, with a HALLAXE of 156 and a 96% Hall probability among his elite peer group, he should get his due by 2027, his 5th ballot.
2028: A Pair of Pitching Greats
508-win Albert Pujols is an absolute lock for first-ballot honors in 2028. The model gives him a 100% chance based on his 174 HALLAXE and inner-circle resume. Felix Hernandez faces a tougher battle at 47% odds, but Cooperstown’s evolving view of peak pitching value should boost his 141 HALLAXE.
2029: An Ace and a Slugger Get Their Plaques
Miguel Cabrera, with his 3,000 hits and 500 homers, is another first-ballot cinch at 95% odds. But don’t overlook Zack Greinke, whose 149 HALLAXE and unique career arc translate to a 79% Hall probability.
2030: Joey Votto Leads a Talented Pack
Advanced stats will make Joey Votto a popular choice on his second ballot in 2030. His 149 HALLAXE matches Greinke’s, giving him an 88% likelihood of induction according to the model.
While these projections are inevitably imperfect, they paint a fascinating picture of Cooperstown’s next half-decade. As Hall debates evolve, this HALLAXE system aims to blend traditional benchmarks with modern metrics to identify the game’s true greats.
So while we celebrate this year’s legendary class, the baseball world can look forward to many more memorable induction ceremonies to come. From Beltran to Votto, the future of Cooperstown is undoubtedly bright.
