Jayden Daniels stands on the precipice of history. The sensational Washington Commanders rookie quarterback is one win away from becoming the first rookie signal-caller to lead his team to the Super Bowl. It’s the latest milestone in a season full of them for the No. 2 overall pick, who has completely transformed a moribund Washington franchise overnight. Daniels’ meteoric rise begs the question: are we witnessing the greatest rookie campaign in the 100+ year history of the NFL?
Comparing Daniels to Legendary Rookie Quarterbacks
To assess Daniels’ case, we must first examine how he stacks up statistically against the best debut seasons ever by a quarterback. And the numbers are staggering. Daniels completed 69% of his passes for 25 touchdowns against just 9 interceptions, good for a 100.1 passer rating. His 70.5 QBR ranked 4th in the NFL and 1st among NFC quarterbacks.
Those marks put him in truly elite company. Since QBR was first tracked in 2006, only Dak Prescott (77.6 in 2016) and Russell Wilson (74.8 in 2012) posted a higher figure as rookies. Of course, both Prescott and Wilson were buoyed by star running backs in Ezekiel Elliott and Marshawn Lynch. Daniels actually led Washington in rushing himself.
Examining Era-Adjusted Metrics
To further contextualize Daniels’ performance, we can use era-adjusted metrics that normalize stats across different time periods. In this case, Daniels’ 114 passer rating+ ranks as the 5th-best mark ever by a rookie with at least 300 attempts. The only quarterbacks ahead of him? Prescott, Robert Griffin III, C.J. Stroud, and Wilson.
Passer rating doesn’t fully capture a QB’s impact though, as it ignores sacks and rushing contributions. When expanding to adjusted net yards/attempt, Daniels ranks 9th all-time. And that’s without even factoring in his 891 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground.
Dan Marino: The Gold Standard?
There is one name notably absent so far: Dan Marino. The Hall of Famer put together a season for the ages as a rookie in 1983, leading the league in many efficiency metrics. The only catch? He made just 9 starts. Still, Marino did enough to finish 3rd in MVP voting that year. It’s hard to rank any rookie QB ahead of peak Marino, even in limited action.
Rookie Accolades and Team Success
Raw stats only tell part of the story, though. We must also weigh rookie accolades and team success. While Daniels likely won’t receive any MVP votes, he was named to the Pro Bowl. 26 rookies have been 1st Team All-Pro, but a quarterback has never achieved the feat.
From a team perspective, Daniels has Washington on the doorstep of the Super Bowl. No rookie QB has ever started the big game. In fact, the previous six to start a conference championship are 0-6 with a ghastly 45.6 passer rating. Ben Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a rookie starter in 2004 before falling to the Patriots in the AFC title game. A win Sunday would put Daniels on a tier of his own.
“Jayden Daniels is playing the best of all the quarterbacks left in the playoffs.”
– Damien Woody, ESPN analyst
Best Non-QB Rookie Seasons
Of course, there are rookies at other positions in the conversation for best ever. Lawrence Taylor was utterly dominant in winning Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in 1981. Eric Dickerson set the rookie rushing record with 1,808 yards in 1983. Randy Moss took the league by storm with a rookie record 17 TD catches in 1998.
All were transcendent talents from Day 1. But outside of running backs like Earl Campbell (1978) and Barry Sanders (1989), no rookie has singlehandedly transformed his team’s fortunes like Daniels. Washington went from the dregs of the NFL at 4-13 to the cusp of a championship in one year, almost entirely on the strength of their rookie QB’s magic.
“You’re witnessing the greatest rookie season of all time.”
– C.J. Stroud on Jayden Daniels
The Case For Daniels As The Greatest Ever
If Washington loses on Sunday, I’d slot Daniels 8th all-time among rookie seasons. The top tier would be Jim Brown (the only rookie MVP), Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, Lawrence Taylor, and Dan Marino. Jevon Kearse and Randy Moss would also stay ahead of him for now.
But if Daniels can pull off the upset in Philadelphia and take Washington to the Super Bowl? You could make a compelling argument he’d trail only Jim Brown for the best rookie season ever at that point. The degree of difficulty in turning around the Commanders overnight at the game’s most important position would be hard to top.
And if the Commanders somehow went on to win it all, with their precocious rookie outdueling Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen on the biggest stage? Then the debate would be over. Jayden Daniels would unequivocally own the greatest rookie season in the century-long history of the National Football League.
All that’s left now is to see if the fantastical becomes reality. Jayden Daniels has already defied the odds so many times in his nascent NFL career. What’s one more miracle for the rookie with boundless magic in his right arm? Tune in Sunday to find out if Daniels can etch his name in the record books once more.
