In the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, few metrics are watched as closely as the behavior of Bitcoin’s long-term holders. Owning over 13 million BTC, these “smart money” investors – classified as holding coins for 155 days or more – tend to buy the dips and sell into strength. And after months of sustained selling pressure that helped drive Bitcoin below $16,000 in 2024, new on-chain data suggests the tides may finally be turning.
The Significance of Long-Term Holders
To understand why this matters, we need to look at how these long-term holders (LTHs) have behaved historically. In previous market cycles, when LTHs stop selling en masse, it has typically coincided with Bitcoin finding a cycle bottom before the next bull run begins.
- 2013: LTHs stopped selling just before BTC rocketed from $100 to $1,000
- 2017: Selling dried up preceding the surge from $1,000 to near $20,000
- 2021: Holders held tight as Bitcoin ripped from pandemic lows to $69,000
According to research from analytics firm Glassnode, LTHs have sold over 1 million BTC since September when they collectively held 14.2 million coins. As of January 2025, that figure now stands at 13.1 million BTC. The bulk of that selling took place in Q4 2024 as Bitcoin slid over 70% from its all-time high, minting a new generation of bag holders.
Why Are Long-Term Holders Slowing Their Selling?
Heading into 2025, that relentless distribution has slowed to a trickle, with only sporadic selling as Bitcoin has rallied back above the key psychological level of $100,000. This change in behavior suggests two things:
- LTHs believe Bitcoin is undervalued at current prices and are unwilling to part with their coins
- Most LTHs who needed to sell for liquidity/risk management have already done so
In essence, the remaining long-term holders represent strong hands – the truest of crypto believers who are unlikely to sell even if volatility persists. This is evidenced by the fact they held through the vicious 2024 bear market that shook out many speculators.
When the smartest and most committed investors stop selling, even during volatility, it’s a sign of market exhaustion and belief that prices have bottomed.
– James Van Straten, Senior Analyst at CoinDesk
The Importance of the $100,000 Price Level
Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 is psychologically and technically significant. Prior to 2024, this level acted as a major resistance zone that Bitcoin struggled to surmount. But after cleanly breaking above it in January 2025, $100,000 was flipped to support.
According to Van Straten, long-term holders slowing their selling around this price suggests they view anything above $100,000 as relatively cheap and a good re-accumulation opportunity. If bulls can defend this key level, it would provide a solid foundation for the next potential leg up.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin’s Future Price?
While not an exact science, long-term holders going from net sellers to net holders has been a historically bullish signal. Their exhaustion after a capitulation event like we saw in 2024 is often the prelude to a new market cycle.
However, macroeconomic headwinds still pose risks to risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Stubborn inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the looming regulatory crackdown on crypto could all introduce volatility. But with the next Bitcoin halving due in early 2026, which will again slash the supply of new coins, many are betting any dip will be short-lived.
Barring any black swan events, the data suggests the worst of the bear market is likely behind us. Long-term holders setting a floor is an important piece of the puzzle.
– James Van Straten
As always in crypto, expect the unexpected. But for now, the smart money is betting on Bitcoin – even if they’re not buying with both hands just yet. If the 2024 washout truly was the cycle bottom, brighter days may be ahead for patient investors.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
