As Week 8 of the NFL season approaches, a surprising storyline is emerging in the sports betting world: the Cleveland Browns, despite their dismal 1-6 record, are gaining significant steam among sharp bettors. The sudden surge in interest can be attributed to one key factor—the team’s decision to bench struggling quarterback Deshaun Watson in favor of veteran Jameis Winston.
Odds on the Move
The Browns opened as high as 10.5-point underdogs against their division rival Baltimore Ravens, who have won five straight to take control of the AFC North. However, the early sharp action has pushed this line down considerably, with some sportsbooks now offering Cleveland at +8.5.
We have seen sharp money come in on Cleveland early in the week. This is a big number for a divisional game. Additionally, there is a belief that Jameis Winston might be able to jolt some life into this offense.
– Johnny Avello, DraftKings Sportsbook Director
The move is particularly noteworthy given Watson’s struggles this season. According to ESPN Research, the former Pro Bowler has posted the fourth-worst Total QBR (34.3) over the last three years among qualified quarterbacks. The Browns are clearly hoping that Winston, who led the NFL in passing yards in 2022, can provide a much-needed spark.
Bettors Buying In
It appears that many bettors are buying into the potential of a Winston-led turnaround. At ESPN BET, the Browns have attracted 75% of the betting handle against just 32% of the total bets, indicating that the larger wagers are heavily tilted toward Cleveland.
The rising confidence in the Browns has also impacted the total for the game, which has moved up two points to 44.5 at some books. This suggests that bettors are expecting a higher-scoring affair with Winston under center.
Risk for the House
While the Browns’ short odds have largely mitigated risk for sportsbooks so far this season, a strong performance by Winston and company could spell trouble. As one bookmaker noted:
Despite having a high ticket count, Messi and Inter Miami’s odds being short all season have actually made them a good outcome for us if they win the cup. The Columbus Crew going back-to-back would be the worst-case scenario for us.
– Seamus Magee, BetMGM Trading Manager
With the MLS playoffs set to kick off, sportsbooks will be keeping a close eye on the action both on the pitch and at the betting window. As for the Browns, their date with destiny arrives this Sunday against the heavily favored Ravens. Will the Winston gamble pay off? The sharp money seems to think so.
