When Donald Trump steps to the podium on January 20th to be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States – again – ripples will be felt across the globe. But perhaps nowhere more so than in the United Kingdom, where policymakers are bracing for a new, unpredictable era in the so-called “special relationship.” Having dealt with the unorthodox Republican during his first term, British officials thought they knew what to expect. This time around, they’re not so sure.
Trump’s commanding electoral victory in November, fueled by a campaign operation that was sleeker, savvier, and more disciplined than his inaugural run, signaled that the former reality TV star was no one-term fluke. While many in the UK breathed a sigh of relief at Trump’s ouster in 2020, there was also a begrudging respect for his political acumen. As one Whitehall insider put it, “He’s the comeback kid. We’d be foolish to underestimate him again.”
A Royal Trump Card?
In the lead-up to Trump’s return to the White House, the UK government has been quietly war-gaming scenarios and plotting strategy. At the top of the agenda: trade. With Trump vowing blanket tariffs on imports, British ministers are hoping the UK’s more modest trade surplus with the US, compared to the EU and China, will spare them the worst. An early US-UK trade deal focused on services and tech is seen as a potential olive branch.
But perhaps the UK’s secret weapon in dealing with The Donald is the one institution that still seems to command his genuine respect: the monarchy. Trump’s affinity for Queen Elizabeth II was well documented, and King Charles III is said to have made a favorable impression as well. Royal participation in events like the Notre Dame cathedral reopening, where Trump and Prince William powwowed in Paris, is being discreetly encouraged. As one palace aide quipped, “They don’t call it the ‘royal trump card’ for nothing.”
Special Relationship, 2.0
Still, relying on royal charm offensives can only get the UK so far. On substantive policy issues like China, Ukraine, and the wider transatlantic alliance, Britain will face tough choices in the Trump 2.0 era. Balancing the desire for close US ties with the UK’s own strategic interests and values is a high-wire act few would envy.
To navigate these choppy waters, Prime Minister Starmer is leaning on two seasoned hands: Peter Mandelson, the former EU trade commissioner now serving as UK ambassador to Washington, and Jonathan Powell, a veteran of the Blair years who has taken up the mantle of national security adviser. Both boast deep DC rolodexes, but even their most frantic dialing has yielded more voicemails than direct lines to Trump Tower.
“Nothing means anything until we get out of the phoney war.”
– Simon Fraser, Chair of Chatham House
The early moves have been a mixed bag. An effort to fast-track resolution of the Chagos Islands dispute before Trump took office fizzled. A planned UK-US trade deal was bumped to the back burner. Visits by Labour officials to stump for Democrats in the midterms drew howls from Trump allies. But Starmer also earned plaudits for deftly partnering with Italian premier Giorgia Meloni on migration.
Steadying the Ship
Amid the uncertainty, calls are growing for the UK government to clarify its strategic priorities vis-a-vis the US and assert them consistently, even in the face of Trumpian pressure. Defense spending, China policy, and the Northern Ireland protocol post-Brexit are likely flashpoints where the UK may need to respectfully diverge from Washington’s line.
“If the government is serious about securing the UK’s national interest,” argues Laura Chappell of the Institute for Public Policy Research, “they need to be crystal clear which objectives they most care about.” In other words, when the Trump train starts rolling, Britain needs to know exactly where its red lines are – and be prepared to defend them.
As the world watches this sequel to the Trump show, no one is watching more intently than those charged with stewarding the special relationship through uncharted waters. “A bit of a watershed moment,” is how one Labour insider describes the days ahead. It promises to be a watershed in more ways than one.
