In an unexpected visit to Taiwan on the eve of Donald Trump’s second inauguration, former Vice President Mike Pence delivered a strong message to the incoming administration: stand firm in your support of Taiwan, or risk destabilizing the entire Asia-Pacific region. Pence, who has been increasingly at odds with Trump, warned that any reduction in ties with Taiwan could have catastrophic consequences.
Pence: Cutting Taiwan Ties Would “Spark a New Nuclear Arms Race”
Speaking in Taipei, Pence cautioned that if the US were to withdraw or diminish its longstanding support for Taiwan in the face of threats from mainland China, it could set off a chain reaction of nuclear armament across Asia. Smaller countries in the region who currently depend on American security assurances would lose confidence, Pence argued, and feel compelled to develop their own nuclear arsenals as a deterrent against an emboldened China.
“Ultimately nations would feel they have no choice but to develop their own nuclear arsenal,” Pence said, painting an ominous picture of unchecked atomic proliferation from Japan to Indonesia.
An Appeal for Steadfast Commitment to Taiwan
Pence called on the new Trump administration, as well as American allies, to not only maintain but strengthen their dedication to Taiwan’s defense and autonomy. This would entail continued weapons sales and other military assistance to ensure the island democracy can protect itself from potential Chinese aggression.
But security cooperation alone is not sufficient, according to the former VP. He also urged the swift opening of free trade agreement negotiations with Taipei, to deepen economic ties and counter China’s efforts to isolate Taiwan commercially and diplomatically.
Denouncing the “New Isolationism” in GOP Ranks
Pence’s resounding endorsement of unwavering support for Taiwan comes in sharp contrast with signals from Trump himself, who has recently implied the US security umbrella over the island may be negotiable. In an op-ed last week, Pence openly slammed this “dangerously narrow” perspective gaining ground among some Republicans, which he characterized as a “new and troubling strain of isolationism.”
Pence pointed to “recent comments that were dismissive of Taiwan” as exposing a misunderstanding of “America’s role in the world” and the high stakes of disengagement from such a pivotal democratic partner.
From Tough-on-China Unity to Open Dissent
It’s a stunning role reversal for the once inseparable political duo, who Pence credits with transforming the Washington establishment’s consensus on China during their White House tenure. After campaigning as hawks determined to confront Beijing, Trump and Pence presided over an unprecedented hardening of US policy toward the People’s Republic, from trade wars to diplomatic confrontations to revitalized support for Taiwan.
Now, on the cusp of a second Trump term, the former running mates find themselves increasingly at odds over this signature foreign policy legacy. As the president toys with a more transactional, less committed approach to Taipei, Pence is actively rallying the world to stay the course.
Tensions Flare Around Taiwan Strait and Beyond
Pence’s intervention comes at a time of spiraling tensions across the Taiwan Strait, as Beijing ramps up military and diplomatic pressure in its bid to eventually subsume the self-governing island. The Chinese leadership, under Xi Jinping, has made “reunification” with Taiwan a paramount priority and refused to renounce the use of force.
But the shock waves of any shift in US policy would reverberate far beyond the 110-mile wide strait. An American pullback could radically alter the security architecture of the world’s most economically dynamic region, unnerving allies who have long depended on the United States as a counterbalance to China’s growing clout.
The Fallout from a Fractured Relationship
Pence’s stark warnings also cast a spotlight on the rapidly deteriorating relationship between the one-time partners. Once a forceful advocate for Trump, even in the face of the damning revelations of the January 6th hearings, Pence has become increasingly willing to challenge the ex-president and carve out his own political identity.
Taiwan now appears to be the latest flashpoint in this unfolding rift, as Pence positions himself as a champion of the decades-old bipartisan consensus Trump appears poised to upend. Whether the former VP’s admonitions will sway the policy trajectory of a second Trump administration is far from certain. But they do ensure that the future of US-Taiwan relations, and the specter of a region bristling with new nuclear powers, will be a central point of contention as the GOP works to define its post-2024 foreign policy.
