The NFL playoffs are finally here, and Sunday’s wild-card slate offers an exciting trio of matchups for football fans and bettors alike. The upstart Denver Broncos visit the powerhouse Buffalo Bills to get things started, followed by an NFC clash between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. The nightcap features the Washington Commanders taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a rematch of their season opener. Let’s dive into each contest and break down the odds, key trends, and betting advice to help you make smart wagers.
Broncos at Bills
The Bills enter the postseason as Super Bowl favorites thanks in large part to the stellar play of quarterback Josh Allen. Buffalo has been dominant at home, going a perfect 8-0 straight up and 5-3 against the spread. However, the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix have been one of the pleasant surprises of the season. Denver is a whopping 12-5 ATS overall.
This game is going to be ugly. Credit to Denver for an impressive campaign, but dive into the numbers and you’ll see the Broncos went 1-7 with a minus-37 point differential against teams with a winning record this season.
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN
Some key trends to consider:
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 9 home games
- Rookie QBs are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in road playoff games the last 10 years
- Wild card favorites of 9+ points are 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS
The Bills are hefty 8.5-point favorites, but that feels a tad low given their dominance at home and Denver’s struggles against top competition. Look for Buffalo to win comfortably and cover. The Broncos’ Cinderella story likely ends here.
Pick: Bills -8.5
Packers at Eagles
The Eagles welcome back Jalen Hurts under center as they host the Packers in a rematch of their Week 1 showdown in Brazil. Philly prevailed 34-29 in that contest and enters this one as 5-point favorites. Led by Hurts and rushing champ Saquon Barkley, the Eagles’ offense has been a juggernaut. However, Green Bay can never be counted out with Jordan Love at QB.
Even though they’re not the betting favorite to do so, the team in the NFC I think most likely to reach the Super Bowl is the Philadelphia Eagles. That’s why I’m going to take them to win and cover in their wild-card round matchup with the Green Bay Packers.
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN
Notable trends:
- The Packers are 25-10 ATS as underdogs under Matt LaFleur
- Philly is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall
- The Eagles have covered 3 straight at home
While the Packers have thrived in an underdog role, the Eagles are peaking at the right time and have a huge edge playing at the Linc. Lay the points with the Birds.
Pick: Eagles -5
Commanders at Buccaneers
The final game of wild-card weekend is a Tampa Bay-Washington rematch from Week 1. In that contest, the Bucs prevailed 37-20 at home, with Baker Mayfield tossing 4 TDs. Tampa is favored by a field goal this time around against the upstart Commanders and dynamic rookie QB Jayden Daniels.
I think we see a lot of points in this matchup, the number just not high enough for me. I’m going to play the over. I think we get a 50-plus point shootout with Jayden Daniels going up against that Buccaneers defense, using his arm and his legs to create explosives.
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN
Trends to know:
- The OVER is 12-5 in Tampa games this year, including 11 of their last 14
- Washington overs are 5-1 vs winning teams this season
- The Bucs are 12-4-1 to the first half over, 3rd highest rate in NFL
Points will likely be plentiful in this one. Take the over on a game total of 50.5 and enjoy the offensive fireworks. It should be the most entertaining matchup of the wild-card slate.
Pick: OVER 50.5
Sunday’s trio of wild-card games offers a little bit of everything – big favorites, live underdogs, and shootout potential. By diving into the odds, key trends, and expert perspectives, we’ve uncovered some solid betting angles to attack. Enjoy the games, and good luck with your wagers!
