The NFL playoffs are here, and wild-card weekend brings a pair of intriguing AFC matchups. The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Houston Texans, while AFC North rivals Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens face off for the third time this season. With plenty at stake, where does the betting value lie? Let’s dive into the odds, key trends, and top player props for both games.
Steelers at Ravens Betting Preview
The nightcap features Lamar Jackson and the surging Ravens hosting a Steelers team that limped into the playoffs. Baltimore enters as whopping 9.5-point home favorites, tied for the largest wild-card spread in the last decade. The Ravens have been on an absolute tear, going 4-0 straight up and ATS since their bye while winning each game by at least 15 points. That includes a 34-17 thrashing of these same Steelers just two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin’s squad dropped its final four contests and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. Tomlin actually has a stellar record as a postseason underdog, but the Steelers have never been this big of a dog against their archrivals. In fact, underdogs of more than a touchdown are just 4-8 ATS in wild-card games.
Ravens Player Props to Target
If you expect Baltimore to roll, the player props market offers some enticing overs:
- Lamar Jackson OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-115): The MVP frontrunner has topped this number in three straight and should use his legs early and often against a gassed Steelers D.
- Mark Andrews OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-120): Jackson’s favorite target saw 11 looks in their last meeting and is a mismatch nightmare for Pittsburgh.
“The Ravens might be the best team in football right now. I’m laying the points with John Harbaugh’s red-hot squad at home.”
– Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst
Chargers at Texans Betting Preview
The opening game of wild-card weekend sees Justin Herbert and the Chargers laying a short number in Houston. LA closed the season with three straight wins, while the Texans dropped two of their last three. The Chargers were a covering machine all year at 13-4 ATS, the best mark in the league. That includes a perfect 6-1 ATS record as road favorites.
On the flip side, Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud will have to overcome the loss of top weapons Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Stroud and an inconsistent Texans offense will likely struggle against a tough Chargers defense. LA has a sharp coaching advantage as well with Brandon Staley’s staff.
Trends Favor the Chargers
- Chargers are 13-4 ATS this season, best in the NFL
- Chargers are 7-2 ATS all-time vs. Texans
- 11 of Texans’ 17 games went UNDER the total
“The Texans’ Cinderella story ends here. LA’s coaching and talent edges are too much. Lay the short number with the better team.”
– Ben Solak, betting expert
The Chargers are popular public and sharp sides, with the line ticking up to a full 3. Fading rookie QBs in their playoff debuts has historically been profitable, especially against superior opponents. Trust Herbert and Co. to get it done on the road and advance to the divisional round. The total also looks a tad high considering these teams’ combined under trends.
Final Predictions
| Game | Spread | O/U |
| Chargers at Texans | LA -3 | Under 41.5 |
| Steelers at Ravens | BAL -9.5 | Over 43.5 |
Expect the favorites to take care of business on wild-card Saturday. The Chargers and Ravens were two of the NFL’s hottest teams down the stretch and draw favorable matchups against overmatched division winners. Lay the lumber with the Bolts and back Baltimore’s explosive offense to put up points on Pittsburgh.
Of course, the NFL playoffs are always unpredictable, and upsets can happen anytime. But the betting markets have these lines pegged right. Roll with the obvious sides, sprinkle some player prop overs, and hopefully kick off your postseason bankroll in style. Happy wagering!
