When a sensational heist or violent crime hits the headlines, it’s easy to assume that lawlessness is on the rise. Politicians fan the flames, warning of societal breakdown and pledging to “take back our streets.” But they neglect to mention one crucial fact – overall crime rates have been plummeting for decades across the developed world, now reaching record lows in many countries.
The Great Crime Decline
The latest data tells a story largely absent from screaming headlines and political stump speeches. In England and Wales, the Crime Survey shows incidents falling from nearly 20,000 in 1995 to under 5,000 in 2024. Rates of burglary alone have dropped by a staggering 70% since 2003. Across the Atlantic, even as some politicians sow fear about rising violence, statistics show rates of violent crime and murder also taking a steep downward dive.
This trend extends across various offenses – from car theft to domestic violence. Of course, there are outliers. Fraud and cybercrime rates have ticked upward as criminals shift tactics. But on the whole, the streets and homes of the developed world are safer today than they have been in living memory. So what explains this remarkable yet underreported societal shift?
Tougher Targets
One factor is that many common crimes have simply become much harder to pull off. Take burglary. Homes now boast sturdier frames, stronger locks, louder alarms, and ubiquitous cameras. Cars come standard with immobilizers and central locking. All but the most skilled thieves are deterred. A generation ago, any bold teenager could readily embark on a spree of break-ins and car thefts. Now, it takes a seasoned pro to stand a chance – and even then, DNA evidence makes getting away with it an iffy proposition.
As for petty theft, there’s increasingly less worth stealing. Electronics that were once expensive trophies for criminals now sell for a pittance. And in an increasingly cashless society, homes and businesses have little physical lucre lying around to lure sticky-fingered intruders. When crimes do spike these days, it’s often because they’ve become easier – such as “Apple picking” the phones of distracted pedestrians.
Perception vs. Reality
So why does the public not recognize this positive trend? Media coverage plays a role. A high-stakes art heist or “crime of the century” makes for alluring headlines, while a steady decades-long decline in burglaries does not. If it bleeds, it leads – and coverage of extreme outlier crimes promotes the inaccurate perception of a crime wave.
Politicians also have little incentive to tout falling crime rates. For those out of power, sowing fear about crime provides a potent attack line. For incumbents, highlighting low crime could invite complacency and reduced budgets. Even criminal justice reform advocates may downplay progress, concerned it will sap the momentum for further action. The unfortunate result is a public grossly misinformed about the actual prevalence of crime.
Rethinking Root Causes
The plunge in crime should also prompt a re-examination of long-held theories on its causes. Social conservatives long warned that family breakdown and violent media would unleash a youth crime epidemic. But even as marriage rates dropped and video games proliferated, youth crime rates fell. The left, meanwhile, linked rising crime to inequality. But even as inequality has grown, crime has not. And tougher sentencing seems to have little deterrent effect, with the famously lenient Netherlands also enjoying a crime drop.
Instead, the evidence increasingly points to situational prevention – making crime harder through target hardening, better security, and reduced cash – as the key to deterrence. When motivated offenders find few suitable targets, they simply age out of crime rather than escalating. And when crime does occur now, it is highly concentrated on a small number of chronically victimized targets. These underprotected “hot spots” and repeat victims warrant intensely targeted intervention resources.
Cause for Celebration – and Refocused Efforts
Ultimately, the crime decline of recent decades is a monumental societal achievement that has gone perplexingly unheralded. We are, on average, safer in our communities than ever before in modern times. That’s a fact worth celebrating – and learning from. By identifying and disseminating the policy choices that have worked to reduce crime, we can drive victimization down even further.
But we must also recognize that this rising tide has not lifted all boats equally. The chronic victims on whom serious crime is now concentrated deserve the intensive support and protection they are too often denied. Shocking heists may nab headlines, but the true scandal is the thousands for whom victimization remains a regular feature of life. Spreading safety more fully and equitably is the challenge ahead. But the plunging crime rates of the past three decades reveal what is possible when we get the fundamentals of prevention right.
