In the high-stakes world of fantasy football, consistency is king. While explosive performances can win any given week, it’s the players who reliably deliver quality stats that form the backbone of championship rosters. That’s why astute fantasy managers pour over consistency ratings to identify the safest draft targets and weekly starters. ESPN’s consistency ratings, spanning the 2022 to 2024 NFL seasons, offer invaluable insight into which players are true rocks of stability.
Methodology Behind the Metrics
ESPN’s consistency ratings are derived from a player’s weekly fantasy point totals using standard PPR scoring. The consistency rating (CR) itself is calculated by dividing a player’s weekly standard deviation by his fantasy points per game average. The lower the CR, the more consistent the player’s production – they more closely mirror their average output each week.
Other key metrics include start percentage (how often the player posted a “startable” week by position), stiff percentage (how frequently they drastically underperformed), and big game percentage (how often they blew up for a top positional performance). Together, these stats paint a complete picture of a player’s week-to-week reliability.
Quarterbacks: Dual-Threats Dominate
At the quarterback position, elite rushing ability translates to unmatched consistency. Josh Allen leads the pack with an incredible 75% start percentage and 0.329 CR. Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray also posted sub-0.5 CRs on the strength of their legs. Notably, pure pocket passers like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert lagged behind their dual-threat counterparts in CR despite lofty ceilings.
Bell-Cow Backs Bring Bankable Volume
Workhorse running backs Christian McCaffrey (0.671 CR) and Derrick Henry (0.521 CR) stand tall as the surest bets at the position. Their unmatched volume keeps both their floors and ceilings sky-high. Sophomore sensation Breece Hall’s 58.5% start percentage jumps off the page, while receiving specialist Austin Ekeler remains a safety net with a 65.9% start rate. Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson emerged as new models of consistency following increased roles.
Target Hogs Top Wide Receiver Ratings
Volume is the name of the game at wide receiver, and the target hogs reign supreme in consistency. CeeDee Lamb (0.485 CR, 72.5% start), Tyreek Hill (0.543 CR, 70% start) and Stefon Diggs (0.502 CR, 65% start) make up the CR elite. Sophomore stud Garrett Wilson made a stunning debut at a 0.550 CR and 43.9% start rate. After an injury-plagued 2023, Cooper Kupp returned to prominence with a still solid 35% start percentage.
Tight End Unicorns Impossible to Replace
Tight end is a notoriously boom-or-bust position, but a few studs stand out as true set-it-and-forget-it options. Travis Kelce remains the gold standard with a 0.594 CR and 62.5% start rate. Second-year sensation Brock Bowers (0.469 CR) and George Kittle (0.713 CR) enter the undroppable tier as well. After them, only T.J. Hockenson and Dalton Schultz broach the 30% start mark, emphasizing positional scarcity.
D/ST and Kicker Consistency Mostly a Mirage
Unfortunately, the two most vexing positions for fantasy managers – team defenses and kickers – prove to be mostly crapshoots in terms of consistency. Even the safest bets like the 49ers D/ST (53.7% start) and Ravens K Justin Tucker (56.1% start) barely crack startable territory half the time. Streaming these spots based on matchups remains the optimal strategy in most formats.
Consistency ratings are an underutilized, yet critical, tool for getting an edge in fantasy football. Correctly identifying the ‘boring’ high-floor producers is just as important as nailing the splashy upside picks.
A fantasy football analyst who wished to remain anonymous
Savvy fantasy managers know that balancing week-winning ceiling with bankable consistency is the key to long-term success. Volatility can be a manager’s best friend or worst enemy in the fantasy playoffs. Wise drafters will heed the consistency ratings and assemble teams with stable floors to counter the variance inherent in the boom-bust options that often tilt title matchups. In a game that often feels like gambling, consistency is a safe harbor.
