As the 2024 presidential election heats up, a new poll is sending shockwaves through Democratic circles. The survey, conducted by a reputable research firm, reveals that Arab American voters are slightly favoring former president Donald Trump over current Vice President Kamala Harris – a troubling sign for the Democratic nominee’s chances in key battleground states like Michigan.
According to the poll, 43% of Arab American respondents support Trump, compared to 41% backing Harris and 4% favoring the Green Party candidate. These figures align with a previous survey this month showing Harris struggling to win over this important voting bloc, likely due to the current administration’s staunch support for Israel during its year-long conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
Trump Seen as More Likely to Resolve Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Perhaps most surprisingly, the poll indicates that more Arab American voters believe Trump would be better positioned to bring peace to the Middle East. When asked which candidate is most likely to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 39% chose Trump versus just 33% for Harris. The two were tied at 38% on the question of who would be “better for the Middle East in general.”
This level of support for Trump is striking given his record of inflammatory rhetoric. The same poll found that nearly twice as many respondents – 46% compared to 23% – believe anti-Arab racism and hate crimes are more likely to increase under a second Trump term than a Harris presidency. Yet his strongman image and hardline “America First” foreign policy seem to be resonating.
Harris Walking a Tightrope on Israel-Palestine
For her part, Vice President Harris has tried to strike a delicate balance on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. While affirming Israel’s right to self-defense, she’s also expressed concern over the humanitarian toll of the Gaza war. The recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in an Israeli airstrike prompted Harris to suggest it could present an opportunity for de-escalation – a stance that may have cost her support among more hardline pro-Israel voters.
“The Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames”
– Donald Trump, on a potential Harris presidency
Michigan Emerging as 2024 Battleground
The shifting preferences of Arab American voters could have major implications in swing states like Michigan. Home to one of the nation’s largest Arab American populations, Michigan is once again shaping up to be a focal point of the 2024 race. Recent polls show Harris and Trump locked in a virtual tie there.
Trump narrowly carried Michigan in 2016 before losing it to Biden four years later. Harris has sought to shore up Democratic support in the state, but her joint campaign events with Liz Cheney – daughter of Iraq War architect Dick Cheney – may be a tough sell for Arab American voters still scarred by that conflict.
On the Republican side, Trump wasted no time seizing on the opening. In a fiery post on his Truth Social platform, he declared that a Harris victory would set the Middle East ablaze for “the next four decades.” The incendiary claim underscores just how fierce the battle for this small but mighty voting bloc is becoming.
Democrats Face Uphill Battle to Regain Lost Ground
For Democrats, the latest polling data points to an urgent need to reconnect with Arab American voters. While Harris has regained some of the support lost under Biden, she remains far behind the 59% mark he reached in 2020. With the election just months away, the race to close that gap is now an all-out sprint.
But even as Harris criss-crosses the campaign trail, the political winds in Michigan and other battlegrounds are shifting in unpredictable ways. The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most brutally contested in modern history – and the battle for one small but powerful coalition of voters may just tip the scales.
