The battle for AFC North supremacy is coming down to the wire, with the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers locked in a tight race entering the final two weeks of the regular season. Both teams sit at 10-5, making their Christmas Day matchups all the more crucial in determining who will emerge with the division crown and the right to host a playoff game.
Down to the Wire
With identical overall, division, and common opponent records, there is little separating these fierce rivals. The Steelers currently hold the slimmest of edges due to a superior conference record (7-3 vs the Ravens’ 6-4). This means Pittsburgh controls its own destiny – two wins and the division is theirs, regardless of what Baltimore does.
But the Ravens have an easier path on paper. Baltimore is favored by 5.5 points for their road tilt against the 9-6 Texans, while the Steelers are 2.5-point home underdogs vs the 14-1 Chiefs. If both teams take care of business in Week 17 though, it sets up a fascinating final week.
Remaining Schedules
- Ravens: at Texans (9-6), vs Browns (3-11)
- Steelers: vs Chiefs (14-1), at Bengals (6-8)
Winning out would give Pittsburgh the division on the conference record tiebreaker. But any slip-up opens the door for Baltimore, who would claim the AFC North by winning out in that scenario. There are many permutations in play based on the Week 17 results.
We are singularly focused on our next opportunity. The big-picture stuff takes care of itself.
– Mike Tomlin, Steelers Head Coach
Key Scenarios
Here are the main ways the division could be decided:
- Steelers win out: Pittsburgh wins AFC North
- Ravens win out, Steelers lose at least once: Baltimore wins AFC North
- Ravens beat Texans & lose to Browns, Steelers lose to Chiefs & beat Bengals: Pittsburgh wins on division record
- Ravens lose to Texans & beat Browns, Steelers beat Chiefs & lose to Bengals: Baltimore wins on division record
Major Implications
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Winning the division means hosting a playoff game and needing just two wins to make the Super Bowl. The wild-card team faces a daunting three-game road gauntlet. In the last 13 years, only the 2020 Buccaneers won it all this way, aided by limited fan attendance due to COVID-19.
We’re trying to win regardless… I’m trying to win.
– Lamar Jackson, Ravens QB
After two straight losses, the Steelers know they let a golden opportunity slip away in Baltimore. But they remain undeterred in their quest to recapture AFC North glory for the first time since 2020. A home date with the mighty Chiefs is a huge test of their resolve.
The Ravens meanwhile have rebounded well from an inconsistent first half. With Jackson playing at an MVP level again and the defense hitting its stride, they are built for December football. Taking care of business in Houston is imperative to keep the pressure on Pittsburgh.
Two proud franchises, one division, and no margin for error. The next two weeks will determine whether the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Baltimore or Pittsburgh. In a rivalry this storied, would we want it any other way?
