The NFL is gifting fans with a special Christmas treat this year – not one, but two marquee playoff matchups between AFC powerhouses. At 1pm ET, Patrick Mahomes and the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs head to Pittsburgh to battle the surging Steelers. Then at 4:30pm, Lamar Jackson leads the Baltimore Ravens into Houston for a Divisional Round rematch against the dangerous Texans.
With a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Chiefs and Ravens enter as road favorites, but both face tough tests against experienced, battle-tested opponents. Let’s dive into the latest odds, preview the key matchups, and get some expert betting picks to stuff your stockings with extra cash this holiday season.
Chiefs vs Steelers Odds & Preview
The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites over the Steelers with an over/under of 42.5 points. Kansas City’s high-flying offense led by Patrick Mahomes will need to solve a stingy Pittsburgh defense allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL this season.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy vs Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. – The rookie sensation Worthy has emerged as Mahomes’ top target, but draws a tough assignment against the physical, lockdown corner Porter.
- Steelers RB Najee Harris vs Chiefs run defense – Harris is the engine that makes the Steelers’ offense go. If the Chiefs, who rank top 5 vs the run, can shut him down, it will put immense pressure on Russell Wilson to beat them through the air.
Jaylen Warren longest rush UNDER 11.5 yards (-125) is my best bet. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest rushes over 11 yards this season. Warren is more of a pass-catching back, with only six carries over that mark all year.
– Daniel Dopp, ESPN Betting Analyst
Ravens at Texans Odds & Preview
Baltimore is favored by 4 points in the spread and the over/under is set at 46.5 total points. The Ravens have dominated the Texans in recent matchups, winning by an average of 22.8 points in their last four meetings. However, a lot has changed since their playoff game last January.
Texans’ New Weapons
Houston spent their offseason upgrading the offense around franchise QB C.J. Stroud. Rookie WR Nico Collins has provided an explosive deep threat (17.5 yards per catch), while TE Dalton Schultz has been Stroud’s security blanket underneath. The Texans will need both to produce against Baltimore’s blitz-heavy defense.
I’m betting on Nico Collins going OVER 27.5 longest reception yards (-120). The Ravens have allowed the 7th most pass plays of 28+ yards to WRs this year. Collins is averaging 26 yards per catch in his last 6 games and is a big play waiting to happen.
– Daniel Dopp, ESPN Betting Analyst
Ravens’ Rushing Attack
No team runs the ball more than the Ravens with their dynamic duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. They will look to control the clock and wear down Houston’s defensive front. The Texans could be without two key run defenders in Jalen Pitre and Azeez Al-Shaair.
Best Prop Bets
- Mark Andrews OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120) – Andrews remains Jackson’s go-to target, especially in the red zone. The Texans will be without starting safeties Pitre and Ward.
- Joe Mixon UNDER 69.5 rushing yards (-145) – The Ravens have the NFL’s #1 run defense in EPA. Mixon may struggle to find room against their stout front seven.
Our Picks for Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans
| Matchup | Spread | O/U |
| Chiefs at Steelers | Chiefs -2.5 | UNDER 42.5 |
| Ravens at Texans | Ravens -4 | OVER 46.5 |
Both games should be hard-fought and closely contested. We lean with the more talented teams in the Chiefs and Ravens to pull out close victories, but like the UNDER in the defensive battle in Pittsburgh and the OVER in what should be a more wide-open affair in Houston. No matter who you’re rooting for, it will be a Christmas to remember for NFL fans. Enjoy the games and happy holidays!
