The NHL season may only be a third of the way through, but it’s already been a turbulent ride for several underachieving teams. Three head coaches have been fired, with more dismissals likely on the horizon. In the wake of such upheaval, a well-documented phenomenon known as the “new coach bump” often emerges, as teams and individual players react positively to a change behind the bench. For NHL bettors, this presents an opportunity to capitalize on players poised to exceed their projected point totals. Let’s take a closer look at three young stars who could be in line for a breakout under new leadership.
Connor Bedard (Chicago Blackhawks)
The reigning Calder Trophy winner is already reaping the benefits of playing for new Blackhawks bench boss Anders Sorensen. In five games since the coaching change, Bedard has racked up seven points, including two goals. That’s a marked improvement from the five goals and 14 assists he tallied inconsistently over his previous 26 contests. With his shooting percentage (9.1%) and shot volume on the rise, look for the sophomore sensation to start finding the back of the net with more regularity.
Bedard’s current pace would see him finish with 72 points – clearing the over on his preseason projection of 70.5. Considering his sky-high ceiling and Sorensen’s commitment to putting him in a position to succeed, the young phenom looks like a solid bet to keep rolling. Over 70.5 points (+125) is the play here.
Tage Thompson (Buffalo Sabres)
Yes, the Sabres are struggling, but don’t put that on Thompson. The 25-year-old sniper already has 16 goals through 26 games, putting him well on pace to exceed his preseason over/under of 40.5. A recent team meeting in which Sabres ownership reportedly reassured the group that no major changes were imminent could help the team play more freely moving forward.
The Sabres aren’t doing their star forward any favors by leaving him off Team USA’s preliminary Four Nations roster. Thompson’s competitive fire will no doubt be stoked by the snub, giving him extra motivation to fill the net going forward.
Bank on a focused Thompson to stay hot and cash the over on 40.5 goals (+110).
David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins)
It’s been a frustrating start to the campaign for Pastrnak, but are we really going to bet against one of the game’s most gifted offensive talents? Despite underwhelming production to date (11 goals in 32 games), the 26-year-old winger’s track record suggests he’s a prime candidate to benefit from Boston’s recent coaching shakeup.
Even if Pastrnak maintains his current shooting percentage (8.66%), an uptick in shot volume under new head coach Joe Sacco should help him start finding the back of the net with more consistency. A four-point outburst in a decisive win over Vancouver last weekend offered a glimpse of what the star forward is capable of when he’s seeing the puck in high-danger areas.
- Pastrnak is shooting well below his 11-year average of 13.7%
- His 5v5 individual expected goals (13.33 ixG) indicate positive regression is coming
- He’s described himself as “a goal-scorer” and admits he hasn’t been getting his usual looks
Trust Boston’s elite triggerman to regain his form and cash the over 33.5 goals (-150) ticket.
Featured Game: Islanders at Hurricanes
The scuffling New York Islanders, owners of the NHL’s worst special teams, have unsurprisingly drawn the ire of demanding bench boss Patrick Roy. Even the return of offensive catalyst Mathew Barzal was not enough to prevent an ugly loss to Chicago over the weekend.
Meanwhile, steady Hurricanes netminder Pyotr Kochetkov will look to extend his remarkable record of following up each of his three regulation losses this year with wins of two-plus goals or more. Consider Carolina on the -1.5 puck line at an appealing +115.
In terms of player props, look for Andrei Svechnikov and Shayne Gostisbehere to make some noise if the Metropolitan Division leaders are afforded ample power-play time. Both blue-liners racked up multiple points with the man advantage the last time these two teams met and represent excellent value to go over 0.5 power play points at +250 and +225, respectively.
