A perfect storm of political turmoil is engulfing Europe’s two most powerful nations as 2024 draws to a turbulent close. In France and Germany, the rise of far-right forces, crumbling governing coalitions, and a crisis of faith in mainstream politics have converged to plunge Paris and Berlin into chaos at a critical moment for the continent. With Donald Trump poised to return to the White House, the timing could hardly be worse.
Scholz Government Falls as Merz Eyes Chancellery
In Berlin on Monday, a no-confidence vote in the Bundestag toppled Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s beleaguered “traffic light” coalition, setting the stage for snap elections in February. Scholz, desperate to gain a mandate for increased borrowing and investment as Germany seeks a new economic model in the wake of the energy crisis, has seen his political gamble backfire spectacularly.
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz, a former BlackRock executive leading the resurgent center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), is now on the cusp of power. While pledging to maintain the cordon sanitaire against the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Merz’s plans for corporate tax cuts and spending restraint risk exacerbating the social tensions fueling the AfD’s alarming rise.
Macron Scrambles as France Teeters
Across the Rhine, President Emmanuel Macron is paying a heavy price for his disastrous decision to call snap parliamentary elections last summer. Intended to confront Marine Le Pen’s far-right after their strong European election showing, Macron’s wager produced an ungovernable National Assembly split between three rival blocs.
Compounding the fiasco, Macron refused to allow the narrow election winner, the left-wing NUPES alliance, to name a prime minister. A farcical game of musical chairs has ensued as the Élysée Palace burns through premiers. Conservative Michel Barnier lasted just a fortnight before losing a confidence vote and being replaced by François Bayrou, a centrist veteran and Macron loyalist who has described his task as “Himalayan”.
We are witnessing twin crises of democratic legitimacy in the European Union’s indispensable power couple at the worst possible time. With an erratic Trump returning to the world stage, a Franco-German engine sputtering and stalling is the last thing Europe needs.
— A senior EU diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity
Europe Holds Its Breath
As Paris and Berlin turn inward, the broader European project is entering treacherous waters. Facing immense challenges—supporting Ukraine, managing the mercurial Trump, responding to an assertive China—the EU can ill afford its two central pillars to be consumed by domestic turmoil.
Yet that is precisely the ominous note on which 2024 concludes for the bloc. Whether Scholz or Merz occupies the Chancellery, whether Macron can stabilize his “Himalayan” governing arrangement, whether the forces of nationalism and Euroskepticism can be contained—on these questions hinge the cohesion and trajectory of the European Union as it navigates a perilous 2025.
