In a pivotal referendum clouded by allegations of Russian interference, Moldovans have voted by a razor-thin majority in favor of enshrining a path toward EU membership in the country’s constitution. The closely watched vote, held alongside a presidential election on Sunday, marked a critical juncture in the ongoing tug-of-war between Russia and the West over the small Eastern European nation.
A Narrow Victory for Pro-EU Forces
According to the Central Electoral Commission, after nearly 99.5% of the votes were counted, the “yes” camp in the referendum squeaked ahead with 50.46% of the nearly 1.5 million ballots cast. The margin of victory was just over 13,000 votes, narrowly avoiding what would have been a stunning setback for pro-Western President Maia Sandu and her European integration agenda.
In a separate presidential election, Sandu led the first round with 42% but fell short of an outright majority. She will face off against her closest rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor backed by the pro-Russian Socialists, in a runoff in two weeks. The twin votes were widely seen as a barometer of Sandu’s pro-EU policies amid Moscow’s attempts to maintain its sway.
Allegations of Russian Meddling
The referendum unfolded against a backdrop of accusations by Moldovan authorities that Russia and its proxies had orchestrated an intense “hybrid war” campaign to destabilize the country and thwart its European aspirations. Officials alleged that Moscow’s tactics included funding pro-Kremlin opposition groups, spreading disinformation, meddling in local elections, and backing a large-scale vote-buying scheme.
We have clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes – a fraud of unprecedented scale. Their objective was to undermine a democratic process.
– President Maia Sandu
According to a close source, law enforcement agencies claimed to have uncovered a program in which hundreds of people were taken to Russia for training in staging riots and civil unrest. Moldovan officials have accused fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, who is wanted on corruption charges and reportedly based in Moscow, of orchestrating a destabilizing campaign against EU membership.
A Country Divided
The razor-thin referendum result underscored the deep divisions within Moldovan society over the country’s geopolitical orientation. Pre-election surveys had indicated stronger support for the pro-EU constitutional amendment, with around 60% backing European integration. The much tighter outcome suggests the potency of pro-Russian disinformation campaigns in shaping public opinion.
The narrow margins highlight a deep split in public opinion and significant polarization over Moldova’s EU integration goals.
– Marta Mucznik, senior EU analyst at International Crisis Group
Analysts note that while the referendum passed, the slim majority raises questions about the depth of support for Sandu’s European agenda. The president now faces a tricky balancing act – pushing ahead with pro-EU reforms while trying to bridge the country’s political and social divides.
The Road Ahead
For Sandu and her allies in Brussels, the referendum result, while narrower than hoped, still provides a mandate to continue Moldova’s EU accession process. The country officially began membership talks in June, though major judicial and democratic reforms will be needed to progress.
The looming second-round runoff against a united pro-Russian opposition presents another stern test for Sandu. A victory would strengthen her hand to advance a pro-Western agenda, while a defeat could further hamper Moldova’s European integration efforts.
As Moldova navigates its European future, the specter of Russian interference is unlikely to fade. The referendum showcased Moscow’s intent and ability to meddle in the country’s affairs, exacerbating internal fault lines. Combating these hybrid threats will remain a key challenge as Chisinau charts its geopolitical course between Russia and the West.
