In a stunning turn of events, Syrian rebels have recaptured the strategic city of Aleppo, dealing a major blow to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The surprise offensive, launched from rebel-held Idlib province in northwest Syria, caught government forces off guard and forced a hasty retreat. Experts attribute the rebels’ success to the distraction of Assad’s key allies, Russia and Iran, who are preoccupied with conflicts in Ukraine and Lebanon, respectively.
Rebels Exploit Power Vacuum
The rebel group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist organization that broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, spearheaded the offensive. HTS had maintained control over Idlib province since 2020, thanks in part to Turkish intervention. The group seized the opportunity presented by the shifting geopolitical landscape to strike at Assad’s weakened forces.
The real challenge to Syrian regime forces is the lack of willingness so far by Iran as the patron of Hezbollah and Russia to deploy military assets and air power to bail out the regime as it did before.
– According to Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert with the Royal United Services Institute
Russia’s Ukraine Dilemma
Russia, once a staunch supporter of the Assad regime, has been forced to divert its attention and resources to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Moscow had previously withdrawn S-300 missile systems from Syria in 2022 to bolster its efforts in Ukraine, significantly reducing its presence and influence in the region. While Russia has launched retaliatory airstrikes against rebel positions, their impact has been limited thus far.
Iran and Hezbollah Weakened
Meanwhile, Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, have been significantly weakened by over a year of Israeli airstrikes targeting their positions in Syria. The degradation of these forces has left the Assad regime more vulnerable to rebel advances. Iran, which has suffered setbacks in its direct confrontations with Israel, may be hesitant to intervene directly in support of Assad, fearing further Israeli retaliation.
A New Chapter in Syria’s Civil War
The fall of Aleppo marks a significant shift in the balance of power in Syria’s long-running civil war. HTS, motivated by religious and ideological goals, had long planned for an offensive against government forces. The group’s tactical acumen and timing, combined with the weakened state of Assad’s allies, have yielded a stunning victory that few observers had predicted.
As the dust settles, the international community is closely monitoring the situation, with concerns mounting over the potential for renewed violence and instability in the region. The United Nations has called for restraint from all parties and urged a return to diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.
The existential threat posed by the rebels to the Assad regime means that this conflict is unlikely to end soon.
– According to a senior diplomat familiar with the situation
The fall of Aleppo serves as a stark reminder of the complex and interconnected nature of conflicts in the Middle East. As one war winds down, another reignites, drawing in regional and global powers and threatening to destabilize an already fragile region. The international community must remain vigilant and engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and work towards a lasting peace in Syria and beyond.
