In a stunning turn of events, the populist right Reform UK party is poised to make significant gains in the next Scottish parliament elections, according to recent polling data. With support surging past 10%, experts predict the party could secure up to 12 seats at Holyrood, potentially holding the balance of power in the formation of Scotland’s next government.
Reform UK Riding Wave of Momentum
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice expressed bullish optimism about the party’s prospects as it held its first Scottish conference in Perth over the weekend. “We are going to have much more representation in Scotland than anybody expected just six months ago,” Tice declared. “We could well be the third biggest party in Holyrood.”
The party’s rise has been meteoric since July’s general election, where it garnered 7% of the vote in Scotland despite minimal campaigning infrastructure. In recent council byelections across Aberdeenshire and Glasgow, Reform candidates pulled in between 12% to 25% of first preference votes, showcasing growing grassroots support.
Polls Project Major Holyrood Breakthrough
Renowned elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice believes Reform UK’s momentum will be “fundamental” in shaping the next Scottish parliament, whether elections are held as scheduled in 2026 or called early. “Reform are running around 10% in the regional list,” Curtice noted. “They are set for at least eight, possibly 12, MSPs if there were to be an early election.”
Under Scotland’s proportional representation system, such an outcome would see Reform UK eclipse the Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats in seat count. It would also make it mathematically impossible for either the pro-independence or unionist blocs to form a majority government without Reform’s backing.
Party Expanding Grassroots Presence
To capitalize on its surging popularity, Reform UK is ramping up its on-the-ground presence in Scotland. The party aims to have 30 local branches established by year’s end as it pours more resources into building out infrastructure. Still, Tice insists they are “not taking anything for granted” despite the promising poll numbers.
Sources suggest that while much of Reform’s organizing still occurs online, the party is pivoting to more in-person events and engagement, particularly in their Aberdeenshire stronghold. Reform’s pledge to scrap net zero policies has resonated strongly in the northeast, where oil and gas industry workers are anxious about the green energy transition.
Scottish Conservatives Downplay Threat
The Scottish Conservatives, Reform’s main unionist rival, have publicly downplayed the threat posed by the upstart party’s rise. They point to holding onto four Aberdeenshire council seats in recent byelections despite high-profile defections of two popular local councillors to Reform.
However, the Tories’ new leader Russell Findlay has his work cut out for him in clawing back Reform switchers and stay-at-home voters ahead of the next Holyrood contest. The self-styled straight talker must find a way to reconnect with disaffected unionist voters while navigating his party’s diminished stature across Scotland.
Cross-Party Concern Over Reform’s Rise
Although they won’t openly admit it, elected officials across Scotland’s political spectrum are alarmed by Reform UK’s rapid ascent and the prospect of them playing kingmaker in the next parliament. There are fears Reform’s presence could significantly coarsen the political discourse and drag the Conservatives further to the right.
Reform still need to tailor Scotland-specific messages: they can pick up votes on the regional list simply by saying things other parties won’t, for example on net zero.
– Andy Maciver, former Tory adviser
While Reform has proven adept at identifying wedge issues to energize its base, some question whether the party’s more strident British nationalist overtones will resonate long-term with the Scottish electorate. “Even anti-devolution, arch-unionist Scots are not attracted to the Englishness, as opposed to the Britishness, that [Reform leader] Nigel Farage represents,” cautioned Maciver.
Charting Reform’s Path to Power
To convert its current momentum into a sustainable political force, Reform UK will need to:
- Craft a distinctly Scottish platform and identity
- Develop a roster of effective local communicators
- Navigate the backlash that comes with challenging the status quo
- Demonstrate competence in developing policy solutions
If Reform can clear those hurdles while maintaining its populist, outsider image, it may be poised to fundamentally realign Scottish politics for years to come. With the party now all but guaranteed a significant bloc of seats in the next Holyrood parliament, Reform’s strategists are likely already gaming out various scenarios for wielding maximum leverage in post-election negotiations.
At a minimum, Reform will aim to extract major policy concessions as the price for propping up either a unionist or nationalist governing coalition. In the long run, it may even harbor ambitions of supplanting the Conservatives as Scotland’s second largest party, though that would be a far heavier lift.
Uncertainties Cloud Scotland’s Political Future
While Reform UK looks strongly positioned heading into the next Scottish election cycle, substantial uncertainties remain:
- How might an early Holyrood election scramble the political calculus?
- Will Reform’s appeal hold up under the intense scrutiny of a campaign?
- Can it build the ground game to translate polling support into votes?
- Might the major parties find a way to co-opt or neutralize Reform’s platform?
- How would Reform handle the transition from agitator to power broker?
The answers to those questions won’t become clear until the heat of the next election is upon Scotland. But one thing is certain – with Reform UK’s meteoric rise, the days of politically calculating as if it’s simply an SNP-Conservative duopoly are over. All of Scotland’s parties must now reckon with a new insurgent force capable of scrambling even the best-laid campaign plans and coalition permutations.
As voters, pundits, and politicians alike digest the rapidly shifting landscape, all eyes will be on upcoming Scottish opinion polls to chart Reform UK’s progress. Should the party match or exceed its current trendlines, the next Holyrood election could produce the most dramatically realigned parliament since devolution – with Richard Tice and Reform UK holding the keys to Scotland’s political future.
