The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders renew their heated AFC West rivalry in a Black Friday matchup that could have major implications on the division race and playoff picture. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs enter as heavy 12.5-point favorites, but can Josh McDaniels’ squad pull off another holiday surprise like they did last Christmas? Let’s dive into the betting odds, key storylines, and expert picks for this showdown at Arrowhead Stadium.
Chiefs Seek to Avoid Another Raiders Upset
Last season, the Raiders stunned the Chiefs 30-24 as 7.5-point underdogs in Week 5 before nearly upsetting them again in a narrow 27-20 loss on Christmas Day. Las Vegas has proven to be a tricky out for Andy Reid’s squad in recent years, covering the spread in six of the last eight meetings.
However, the 2024 Raiders have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams, limping to a 2-9 start. A porous defense allowing over 370 yards per game and an inconsistent offense led by the unproven Aidan O’Connell have contributed to their woes. Still, rivalry games tend to be unpredictable, and the Raiders would love nothing more than to play spoiler against the AFC’s top team.
Mahomes, Chiefs Offense Aim to Rebound
After racing out to an 10-1 start, the Chiefs have looked mortal in recent weeks. They narrowly escaped Carolina 24-20 as 14.5-point chalk in Week 12 and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five contests. Mahomes has also been uncharacteristically turnover-prone, with six interceptions over his last five starts.
Still, it’s hard to bet against the presumptive MVP frontrunner for too long. Mahomes’ connection with Travis Kelce remains nearly unstoppable – the All-Pro tight end has topped 80 yards and/or scored a TD in 10 of 11 games. Kelce torched the Raiders for a combined 17 catches, 230 yards and 4 TDs in their two 2023 meetings.
Kelce is starting to get more action as of late with 12, 16 and 10 targets in his past three home games. The Raiders have allowed five touchdown passes to tight ends over their past three games.
– Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst
Betting Trends Favor Raiders to Cover
While the moneyline heavily tilts towards KC, there are several trends pointing to the Raiders keeping this one close. The Chiefs are just 0-5 ATS in their last five and 0-6 ATS as double-digit road favorites under Reid. McDaniels’ crew is also 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a dog of 10+ points.
- Chiefs are 25-40 ATS as at least 7-point favorites under Reid
- Raiders are 10-2 ATS with Aidan O’Connell starting (best of any QB)
- The Over is 4-1 in the last five Raiders games
Our Pick: Raiders +12.5
While we don’t see the Raiders outright winning at Arrowhead, there’s definite value on the generous points. Rivalry games tend to be closer than expected, and the Chiefs are overdue for a convincing victory. We like the Raiders to lose a competitive one and cover +12.5.
KC is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more this season. They win but don’t cover and almost lost to the Panthers last week. All of their wins are by a very close margin and the 14th-ranked offense has not lit up the scoreboard.
– Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Raiders 20
Check out our full NFL Week 13 Betting Guide for more analysis, odds and picks. You can also track all the latest NFL betting action at ESPN. Enjoy the holiday football feast!
