In the early hours of Wednesday morning, an uneasy quiet settled over southern Lebanon. The sounds of shelling and airstrikes that had become a grim soundtrack for weeks finally fell silent as a ceasefire brokered between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. For the war-weary residents of this battered region, it was a moment to exhale—but also to confront the immense challenges that lie ahead.
A Land in Ruins
The extent of the destruction wrought by this latest conflict is staggering. Entire villages have been reduced to rubble, with over 100,000 homes destroyed according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Infrastructure lies in shambles, with water and electricity cut off to many areas. Returning residents are faced with the daunting prospect of rebuilding their lives from the ground up.
We started driving at 3am. We were excited to come back, but so sad for those who died and all the damage.
– Zeinab, 19, returning to her destroyed home with her sister
Compounding the physical devastation is the dire state of Lebanon’s economy. Even before the war, the country was teetering on the brink of state failure, grappling with corruption, inflation, and a crippling financial crisis. Now, with a reconstruction price tag estimated at $8.5 billion—nearly half of Lebanon’s total GDP—the path forward looks bleak.
Hezbollah Hobbled
For Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group and political party that has long held sway in southern Lebanon, the ceasefire is a bitter pill to swallow. The loss of its senior leadership, including Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, has dealt a severe blow to the organization’s command structure and morale. Its capacity to wage war against Israel has been vastly diminished.
Yet in public statements, Hezbollah has sought to spin the ceasefire as a victory. “The Israelis are leaving with their tails between their legs,” proclaimed the group’s new leader, Naim Qassem, in a speech at a Hezbollah stronghold. But with the group’s power and influence visibly weakened, such claims ring increasingly hollow.
Army Ill-Equipped for New Role
Under the terms of the ceasefire, the Lebanese army is supposed to step in to fill the security vacuum in the south. But hobbled by corruption and a lack of resources, the army is ill-prepared for this new responsibility. Soldiers are underpaid, with salaries equivalent to just $100 per month. Even conducting basic patrols is a challenge, with the army often lacking fuel for its vehicles.
Some hold out hope that taking charge in the south could be an opportunity for the army to reassert its authority and legitimacy. “It’s not only a matter of hope, it’s a matter of taking responsibility,” said former army general Khalil Helou. But given the immense obstacles, others fear the military is being set up to fail.
Fears for the Future
As the dust of the conflict settles, the people of Lebanon are left to ponder what comes next. Will this ceasefire hold, allowing the country to begin the long, painful process of rebuilding? Or will it prove as tenuous and short-lived as past truces, giving way to yet another cycle of violence and destruction?
Much will depend on the actions of outside powers. Israel has reserved the right to respond to any perceived threats, and there are concerns that even a small misstep could shatter the fragile peace. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s future remains entwined with the geopolitical maneuverings of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other regional players.
For now, the people of southern Lebanon are left to pick up the pieces of their broken lives, clinging to the hope that this time, peace will prove more than a fleeting illusion. In a land that has known so much war, the hunger for a brighter future is palpable. But the road ahead is long and strewn with obstacles, and the destination—a stable, prosperous Lebanon—remains a distant dream.
