As the guns fall silent along the Israel-Lebanon border, the fragile ceasefire has reignited hopes for a broader peace in the region. Yet even as diplomats scramble to capitalize on this rare moment of calm, the prospects for ending the devastating war in Gaza seem to be fading by the day.
According to sources close to the negotiations, the Biden administration is making a last-ditch effort to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas before leaving office in January. But after 14 months of relentless fighting that has left over 44,000 dead and much of Gaza in ruins, neither side appears ready to compromise.
Domestic Politics Derail Diplomacy
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the ceasefire with Lebanon has only hardened resistance to a similar deal in Gaza. Bowing to pressure from his far-right coalition partners, Netanyahu agreed to halt fighting in the north on the condition of a “total victory” in the south.
According to analysts, the prime minister is increasingly dependent on his image as a wartime leader to fend off corruption charges and keep his fractious government together. With early elections looming, Netanyahu can ill afford to be seen as soft on Hamas.
Gaza Annexation Plans
The Israeli far-right, meanwhile, has made no secret of its desire to annex parts of northern Gaza and “encourage” Palestinians to leave. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently called for Israel to “conquer” and “halve” the population of the coastal enclave.
Such annexation plans leave little room for the kind of concessions that would be needed for a lasting ceasefire, such as easing the blockade on Gaza or releasing Palestinian prisoners. For Hamas, the ability to show that it has not been defeated after more than a year of war is a red line.
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
As the diplomatic impasse drags on, the toll on Gaza’s civilians continues to mount. This week alone, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 20 Palestinians, including over a dozen sheltering in a school. Over half of Gaza’s population is now dependent on aid, with access to clean water, electricity, and medical care severely limited.
We’re reaching a tipping point in terms of Gaza’s capacity to endure such destruction. People are exhausted, hungry, and increasingly desperate. Without a truce soon, I fear the dam will burst.
An aid worker in Gaza City who asked to remain anonymous
The Iran Factor
Looming over the carnage in Gaza is the specter of a wider war with Iran. Netanyahu has long viewed Tehran’s nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel and hopes to make curbing it his legacy. A confrontation with Iran could supersede the need for an active conflict in Gaza to maintain his political standing.
At the same time, former US President Donald Trump has made it clear that he expects the fighting to be over by the time he returns to the White House in 2025. This leaves Netanyahu with a dilemma: appease his main international backer or his key domestic allies. For now, a surge in violence to bring Gaza to heel seems to be his preferred solution.
Time Running Out for Peace
As another round of fighting batters the benighted territory, the fading hopes for peace in Gaza are taking on an air of tragic inevitability. With time and options running out, the coming weeks may see a final diplomatic push to end the bloodshed. But absent a major shift in Israeli politics or Hamas’ calculations, Gaza’s agony is likely to grind on – and with it, the dreams of a just resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
