In a potential breakthrough, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are expected to announce a ceasefire as early as Tuesday evening, bringing a pause to the 13-month conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands on both sides of the border. The deal, brokered by the United States and France, comes amid warnings from Washington that failure to agree could lead to a UN-imposed truce under disadvantageous terms for Israel.
Ceasefire Terms and Challenges
The ceasefire agreement reportedly follows the contours of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war but was never fully implemented. Under the deal, Israel’s military would withdraw from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah would pull its heavy weapons north of the Litani River. The Lebanese army, alongside the existing UN peacekeeping force, would deploy to the border buffer zone during a 60-day transition period.
A US-led supervisory mechanism would act as a referee on infringements, with Washington reportedly providing Israel assurances of support for freedom of action if Hezbollah attacks again or moves forces south. Despite these provisions, implementing the truce faces challenges, given the deep mistrust between the parties and the volatile regional context.
Fierce Fighting Precedes Truce
In the days leading up to the anticipated ceasefire announcement, both Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in fierce fighting to solidify gains. Israel carried out intensive airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon after Hezbollah fired a barrage of over 200 rockets into Israel on Sunday. The conflict escalated in September when hundreds of Hezbollah targets were hit in an attack attributed to Israel, followed by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah’s leadership and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
About 3,700 people have been killed in Lebanon, and 126 people in Israel by the fighting. Hundreds of thousands on both sides of the blue line have been displaced from their homes.
– According to UN estimates
Gaza Truce Remains Elusive
Importantly for Israel, Hezbollah dropped its demand to link the Lebanon ceasefire with ending the fighting in Gaza. Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have repeatedly failed since a truce collapsed last November. Qatar, a key mediator, recently quit its role, urging both parties to show “willingness and seriousness.” Rather than pursue a Gaza truce, Israel is reportedly considering annexing parts of the territory, according to defense officials.
Regional Implications and Uncertainties
The potential Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire has significant implications for regional stability. Iran, Hezbollah’s main backer, is keen to avoid further degradation of its deterrent against Israel and has reportedly given the deal a green light. For Israel, the truce offers a chance to regroup and replenish, with the added assurance of direct US involvement in mediating violations.
However, the durability of the ceasefire remains uncertain, given the deep-rooted hostilities and the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The exclusion of Gaza from the deal also raises questions about the prospects for a comprehensive regional peace. As the world watches, the coming days will test the resilience of this fragile arrangement and its ability to pave the way for a more stable future in the Middle East.
