As the sun rose over Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sunday morning, so too did a sense of resigned disappointment. After negotiations stretched 35 hours past the scheduled end of the COP29 climate summit, delegates from nearly 200 nations reached an agreement that fell far short of hopes and needs, especially for the global South. The final deal sees developed countries committing to mobilize a mere $300 billion in direct climate finance annually by 2035, just a sliver of the $1.3 trillion that experts calculate is required for developing nations to adequately mitigate and adapt to the intensifying impacts of climate change.
A Summit Haunted by Shortfalls
COP29 was beleaguered from the start by lowered ambitions, with heads of state attendance down nearly 50% from last year’s gathering. Negotiators from climate-vulnerable developing countries went in with a clear demand: $1.3 trillion in annual funding from wealthy nations by 2035 to finance their green energy transitions and climate resilience projects. But faced with economic headwinds at home, developed countries balked at the price tag.
As haggling over figures intensified, the $1.3 trillion target was relegated to a mere suggestion in the final text, with no firm commitment behind it. Instead, rich nations put forward $300 billion in direct climate finance – a sum that multiple delegates decried as wholly inadequate. “It’s a terrible deal, but it’s better than leaving with nothing at all,” lamented one negotiator from drought-stricken East Africa.
The Devil in the Details
A closer look at the $300 billion pledge reveals further cracks. Rather than grants and low-interest loans, much of the money is expected to be “mobilized” from private sources, with little clarity on what that entails. There are no binding national commitments, leading many to doubt the funds will fully materialize. Even if they do, inflation will steadily erode the real value of support.
This isn’t climate justice – it’s a fig leaf to cover the shame of rich polluters. The deals reached in Baku are a slap in the face to the millions of people suffering from climate disasters they did nothing to cause.
– Tasneem Essop, Executive Director, Climate Action Network
A Drop in the Bucket
The chasm between what was promised and what is needed is vast. An independent expert analysis found that developing nations will require $2.4 trillion per year by 2030 to shift to renewable energy, electrify infrastructure, adapt to climate impacts, and compensate for irreparable loss and damage. Even if the $300 billion target is met, it pales in comparison to the trillions channeled annually into the fossil fuel industry and militaries of wealthy countries.
Some argue the sums demanded by developing nations amount to reparations for the North’s historical emissions, a taboo word in climate diplomacy. But from the frontlines of the crisis, it’s simply a matter of survival. “We are not asking for charity, we are demanding our right to exist,” asserted the lead negotiator of the Alliance of Small Island States, many of which face erasure by rising seas.
Glimmers Amid the Gloom
Though the outcome in Baku was far from ideal, some see seeds of progress that could sprout into more meaningful action down the road. The final deal does formally recognize the $1.3 trillion figure, even if immediate funding falls short. It also establishes a “roadmap to 2035” to scale up financing over time.
Negotiators also reached agreement on implementing carbon credit trading markets outlined in the Paris Agreement, unlocking a potential major source of climate mitigation funding. Strict new rules aim to fix flaws that plagued past carbon offset schemes. “The guidelines are far from perfect, but they’re a foundation we can build on,” noted one EU delegate.
Many now pin their hopes on COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where the focus is expected to center on ratcheting up national emissions reduction targets to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach. Delegates expressed optimism that Brazil would deftly handle diplomatic snags that derailed talks in Baku.
COP29 may have fallen short, but it didn’t fall apart. We live to fight another day, and in Belém, we must seize the chance to course-correct while we still can.
– Kaveh Guilanpour, Vice President of International Strategies, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
The Long Road Ahead
Despite notes of measured optimism, the path forward remains nebulous and arduous. Current national climate pledges have the world careening towards 2.5°C or more of warming – a level scientists warn would be cataclysmic for nature and humanity. Trillions of dollars in clean energy investments and adaptation measures are needed this decade to avert the worst-case scenario.
But as heat waves, floods, and crop failures sweep the planet with increasing ferocity, it grows harder to imagine political will materializing to drive the rapid, far-reaching transformations required. The $300 billion pledge from Baku, hard-fought as it was, would barely make a dent in the towering costs of climate inaction.
For those on the razor’s edge of the crisis, time has all but run out. “More frequent COP summits are cold comfort when your country and culture face oblivion,” despaired an activist from Kiribati, gesturing to the rising tides lapping at the island nation’s shores. “Where is the global solidarity? Where is the urgency? For us, climate change isn’t some distant future threat – it’s here, it’s now, and it’s a matter of life or death.”
