The race for the College Football Playoff took several dramatic turns in Week 8, as stunning upsets and statement wins completely reshaped the landscape. With the first CFP rankings less than three weeks away, the jockeying for position is getting fierce. Let’s dive into whose playoff stock rose and fell the most after the dust settled on Saturday.
Playoff Contenders Outlook
Entering the season, seven teams had at least a 40% chance of making the playoff according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor: Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State and Notre Dame. Those squads had a combined 76% chance of winning the national title. Eight rollercoaster weeks later, their combined odds sit at 69%. The stakes have shifted, but not dramatically.
Georgia’s playoff odds have actually risen from 79.1% to 86.6% despite the Bulldogs’ loss to Alabama, but their title chances dipped from 21.3% to 10.9% since they’re less likely to earn a first-round bye now. Oregon’s playoff probability jumped from 74.8% to 86.6%, but their championship odds fell from 12.8% to 7%. Texas is still in great shape even after the loss to UGA.
Ohio State and Alabama are trending in opposite directions. The Buckeyes’ playoff outlook improved from 67% to 78.6% without even taking the field in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Tide’s tumbled from 57.2% to 44.3% after a shaky three-game stretch. Penn State’s odds climbed from 58.8% to 72.7%, but they still have to navigate Wisconsin and Ohio State. Notre Dame is basically in the same spot at 56.1%, but with much less room for error.
Biggest Fallers
On the flip side, preseason playoff hopefuls Oklahoma, Florida State, Michigan, Kansas and Missouri each saw their odds plummet by at least 20 percentage points. The Sooners hit rock bottom with their worst home loss in a decade to South Carolina. The Seminoles forgot how to play football. The Wolverines forgot how to beat Illinois.
Other huge fallers include Louisville (down 17.6 points), Arizona (-16.0), UTSA (-14.8), James Madison (-14.5) and NC State (-13.8). Close game luck simply hasn’t been on many of these teams’ side.
Biggest Risers
On the bright side, Miami (+68.6%), Indiana (+63.0%), Iowa State (+44.0%), BYU (+40.8%), Boise State (+31.1%) and Tennessee (+30.4%) have seen their playoff stock soar. The Hurricanes, Hoosiers, Cyclones, Cougars, Black Knights and Midshipmen are a combined 41-0 after going just 33-41 last year. Talk about worst to first.
LSU (+14.3%) has quietly positioned itself as a contender as well. The Tigers face a critical two-game stretch against Texas A&M and Alabama that will determine if they’re for real. Kansas State (+16.1%) and UNLV (+15.8%) are a couple of other surprise risers to keep an eye on.
Week 8 Shockers
In terms of most surprising results compared to pregame projections, South Carolina’s demolition of Oklahoma took the cake, along with Colorado thumping Arizona, Baylor obliterating Texas Tech, and Maryland edging USC. All further proof that on any given Saturday, anything can happen in this sport.
Games of the Week
- BYU’s miracle TD to beat Oklahoma State with 10 seconds left
- Missouri’s Brady Cook leading two late TD drives on one leg
- Maryland blocking a late USC FG and scoring to stun the Trojans
- Iowa State grinding out a late TD to outlast UCF’s upset bid
- Miami outscoring Louisville in a 52-45 track meet
“Mizzou means so much to me.” 🥹An emotional Brady Cook after @MizzouFootball’s win against Auburn.
– SEC Network
As the calendar turns to late October, the intensity, drama and stakes will only ratchet up further. With several juicy matchups on tap for Week 9, expect the playoff picture to keep shifting by the minute. Buckle up for what should be a thrilling stretch run in the chase for the championship.
