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Japan’s Bold World Cup Dream: Assessing Samurai Blue’s 2026 Chances

In a stunning declaration that sent shockwaves through the football world, Japan national team coach Hajime Moriyasu unveiled an audacious target: winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This bold proclamation comes as the Samurai Blue surge towards qualification for their 8th consecutive appearance on football’s grandest stage. With just four matches remaining in the Asian qualifiers, Japan boasts an impressive nine-point lead atop Group C, all but assuring their ticket to the 2026 tournament.

Yet for a nation that has never advanced beyond the Round of 16, aiming for the trophy may seem like an overreach. However, the Japan Football Association’s “JFA Pledge for 2050” outlines a roadmap to achieve this ambitious goal, with a mid-term target of reaching the semifinals by 2030. As we assess Japan’s chances of realizing their World Cup dream, we examine four crucial components: their starting lineup, squad depth, coaching prowess, and mentality.

A Formidable Starting XI

Japan’s strongest lineup is a force to be reckoned with, as evidenced by their stunning victories over football powerhouses Germany and Spain in the 2022 World Cup. The Samurai Blue’s starting eleven now features players not just on the books, but starring for clubs across Europe’s top leagues.

Goalkeeper Zion Suzuki (Parma) anchors a defense featuring Bundesliga standout Ko Itakura (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and Belgian-based duo Shogo Taniguchi (Sint-Truiden) and Koki Machida (Union Saint-Gilloise). The midfield is marshaled by Liverpool’s Wataru Endō, flanked by Ritsu Dōan (Freiburg), Hidemasa Morita (Sporting CP), and Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton). Up front, Takumi Minamino (Monaco), Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad), and Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord) provide a potent attacking threat.

While not yet on par with the star-studded lineups of Argentina, France, or Brazil, Japan’s starting eleven has proven capable of going toe-to-toe with the world’s best. As the old adage goes, football is a team sport, and the Samurai Blue’s cohesion and tactical discipline can help bridge the gap in individual talent.

Addressing Squad Depth Concerns

If there’s one area where Japan may fall short of true World Cup contenders, it’s in squad depth. Beyond the starting eleven, options become limited. Celtic duo Daizen Maeda and Reo Hatate have struggled to replicate their club form on the international stage, while promising striker Kyogo Furuhashi awaits a genuine chance to prove his worth.

Injuries to key players like Bayern Munich’s Hiroki Itō and Arsenal’s Takehiro Tomiyasu further expose the lack of depth. The fact that 38-year-old veteran Yuto Nagatomo remains in the national team picture underscores the need for new blood in the ranks.

Cultivating young talent and fostering greater competition for starting spots will be crucial if Japan hopes to field a squad capable of going the distance in a grueling World Cup campaign.

Hajime Moriyasu: Tactician or Tinkerer?

Once a polarizing figure, coach Hajime Moriyasu has silenced many critics with Japan’s scintillating performances in the Asian qualifiers. Adopting an attack-minded approach, Moriyasu deploys Kaoru Mitoma and Ritsu Dōan as marauding wingbacks, with midfield dynamos Wataru Endō and Hidemasa Morita given license to push forward. The result? A fluid, seven-man attacking unit that has overwhelmed Asian opponents.

However, questions remain about Moriyasu’s tactical flexibility and in-game management. Will he persist with this cavalier style against the world’s elite, or revert to a more conservative approach as seen in the 2022 World Cup? Striking the right balance between attack and defense, and adapting to the unique challenges posed by each opponent, will be key to Japan’s success.

Forging a Winning Mentality

Humility and respect are deeply ingrained in Japanese culture, and the national team embodies these values. However, to truly compete with the world’s best, a dash of ruthlessness and unwavering self-belief may be necessary.

Recent performances suggest a shift in mentality, with Japan playing with a newfound swagger and confidence. Comprehensive victories over China (7-0) and Indonesia (4-0) showcased a killer instinct, a willingness to keep the foot on the pedal even with the result beyond doubt.

According to a close source within the Japan camp, “The players now believe they can beat anyone on their day. There’s a different aura about this team, a sense of destiny.”

Cultivating this winning mentality, while staying true to their roots, could be the key to Japan breaking new ground on the global stage.

The Road Ahead

As Japan stands on the cusp of World Cup qualification, Hajime Moriyasu’s bold declaration serves as a rallying cry for a nation that has long dreamed of footballing glory. While winning the 2026 World Cup may seem a bridge too far, this Samurai Blue squad has the potential to make history by reaching the quarterfinals or even the semifinals.

The journey ahead is fraught with challenges, but Japan’s star-studded lineup, coupled with their growing self-belief and tactical evolution under Moriyasu, gives them a fighting chance. As the old saying goes, “Aim for the moon, and even if you miss, you’ll land among the stars.” For the Samurai Blue, the stars have never been closer.