Southeastern Australia is poised to endure its first major heatwave of the season in the coming days, prompting serious concerns about potential strain on the power grid and elevated fire dangers across the region. As temperatures are forecast to soar a staggering 8 to 14 degrees Celsius above normal for this time of year, authorities are sounding the alarm and urging residents to brace for the sweltering conditions ahead.
Heatwave to Engulf South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, and NSW
According to Dean Narramore, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology, the heatwave will begin to intensify across South Australia on Thursday before spreading its scorching grip to Tasmania, Victoria, and southern New South Wales on Friday and into the weekend. He emphasized the unusually high temperatures, stating:
We’re going to see the heat really start increasing across South Australia [on Thursday], and then continue building there and into Tasmania, Victoria and southern New South Wales Friday and through the weekend.
Dean Narramore, senior Bureau of Meteorology forecaster
Capital cities in the affected states are bracing for consecutive days of searing temperatures:
- Adelaide: Forecast to endure three straight days with temperatures in the mid-30s from Thursday onward
- Melbourne: Set to swelter on Friday and Saturday as the heatwave takes hold
- Canberra: Predicted to experience five consecutive days of 30°C or higher starting Friday, as is western Sydney
Some regions are expected to face low-intensity heatwave conditions, while parts of eastern Victoria and southern NSW may be subjected to severe heatwave conditions, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Power Supply Concerns and Fire Dangers Loom
The impending heatwave has raised serious concerns about the stability of power supplies, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has issued alerts for potential electricity shortfalls in these states early next week, including a worrying “lack of reserve level three” (LOR3) forecast for NSW on Tuesday evening.
Dylan McConnell, an energy expert from the University of New South Wales, noted that NSW has only experienced one previous LOR3 forecast since 2019, underscoring the severity of the situation. Scheduled and unplanned outages at power stations, such as a unit at AGL Energy’s Bayswater coal-fired plant, have further compounded the supply concerns.
While AEMO has indicated that a transmission outage contributing to the supply gap in NSW should be resolved by early next week, the combination of surging electricity demand driven by the heatwave and reduced generation capacity has put the power grid on high alert.
In addition to the strain on energy supplies, the heatwave also brings heightened fire dangers, particularly in South Australia and Victoria. Fire danger ratings are expected to reach “extreme” levels in parts of South Australia on Thursday and Friday, and climb to “high” across much of Victoria on Friday and Saturday.
Although light winds and recent average to above-average rainfall in eastern NSW may help mitigate fire risks in that region, authorities are urging vigilance and preparedness as the heatwave unfolds.
More Heatwaves on the Horizon
Weatherzone senior meteorologist Ben Domensino warned that this heatwave is likely just the beginning, stating, “We’ve probably got many more bursts of heat to come in the next three to four months.” While there is some variation across weather models, the near-term heat is expected to start easing in eastern NSW from Wednesday onward.
However, Domensino cautioned that another hot air mass is predicted to return to southern Australia by late next week before spreading eastward. He noted, “There are some indications that we could see some very hot weather early to mid the following week as summer officially starts.”
Looking further ahead, weather models are suggesting that eastern Australia may experience higher than average rainfall in December, potentially driven by early monsoonal activity developing to the north of the continent. This could bring a mix of heat and moisture, helping to counteract fire risks but also fueling more volatile thunderstorm activity.
As southeastern Australia braces for the first major heatwave of the season, residents are urged to stay informed, take necessary precautions to manage the heat, and remain vigilant about potential power supply disruptions and fire dangers. With the prospect of more intense heatwaves to come over the summer months, it is crucial to prioritize safety and preparedness in the face of these challenging conditions.
