In a significant development that could reshape the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine has fired US-supplied long-range missiles at targets inside Russia for the first time. The move, which follows the Biden administration lifting restrictions on the weapons’ use, has Western officials on high alert over fears that Russia will dramatically escalate its hybrid warfare campaign in retaliation.
Moscow has already promised an “appropriate” response and engaged in nuclear saber-rattling by recently revising its nuclear doctrine. However, US and European officials believe the thrust of Russia’s reply will likely manifest not just on Ukrainian battlefields, but through hybrid attacks across Europe and other regions where Russian interests are at stake.
Hybrid Warfare: A Multi-Pronged Threat
The potential scope of Russian hybrid warfare is vast, encompassing everything from infrastructure sabotage and assassination plots in Europe to increased support for US adversaries in the Middle East and Asia. As one US State Department official put it:
“Generally, we are incredibly concerned about hybrid warfare conducted by Russia both in Europe and around the world, and it’s something we have been in close coordination with our European allies and other allies and partners around the world.”
– US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller
Miller emphasized that Russia would be “held accountable” for any escalatory actions. The US and Europe are already investigating recent damage to Baltic Sea communication cables as suspected sabotage – an event that, if confirmed, would have required advance planning before the US approved Ukraine’s use of Atacms missiles inside Russia.
Europe “Unprepared” for Hybrid Onslaught
One recently departed European defense official described the EU as “totally unprepared” to counter an intensified Russian hybrid offensive. The official warned that Europe lacks sufficient resources to thwart the expected wave of sabotage, infrastructure attacks, and even assassination attempts like the recently foiled plot targeting German arms company executives.
Another senior European security official framed the mounting hybrid attacks as “closer to terrorism, with the aim of intimidating the population and influencing decision-making, and affecting support for Ukraine.” This suggests Russia may attempt to sow fear among European publics and pressure their leaders to curtail support for Kyiv.
Ripple Effects: Middle East and Asia
Beyond direct actions in Europe, analysts warn that Russia could retaliate by deepening cooperation with US adversaries further afield. This might entail increased military support for Iran and its regional proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
Given that the US authorized the missile strikes partially in response to North Korea deploying troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, any boost in Russian support for Pyongyang would further stoke tensions. As US envoy Robert Wood starkly warned, North Korean troops joining the war “will surely return in body bags.”
A New Phase, But Not a New War
For all the consternation over Ukraine’s milestone missile strikes and Russia’s anticipated response, some analysts caution against viewing this as an entirely new conflict phase. While Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called the attacks a “sign that [the West] wants to escalate,” expert predictions of Moscow’s retaliation have been relatively measured:
“The most predictable and obvious [response] will be an increase in strikes on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure facilities in anticipation of the winter cold.”
– Political analyst Anton Barbashin
Barbashin suggests that rather than marking a definitive red line for Russia, the missile attacks are “more likely to fall into the list of red lines that will be crossed and cease to be red lines.” In other words, Moscow may bluster and launch selected retaliatory strikes, but will likely stop short of massively escalating in ways that could prompt even greater Western involvement.
Nevertheless, with a multi-faceted Russian response expected – even if partially delayed until after Trump’s potentially destabilizing return to office – it’s clear that the reverberations of Ukraine’s stepped-up missile campaign will be felt across Europe and throughout geopolitical hotspots worldwide. As the conflict metastasizes further beyond Ukraine’s borders, the resilience of Western solidarity and the restraint of Russia’s red lines face ominous new tests.