In the fast-paced, hard-hitting world of NHL betting, savvy punters are always searching for that elusive edge to beat the bookies. While star forwards and defensive stalwarts often steal the spotlight, a fascinating yet overlooked factor is quietly shaping betting lines behind the scenes: the impact of starting goaltenders.
The Hellebuyck Effect: A Case Study in Goalie Influence
Take the Winnipeg Jets’ recent sizzling 15-3-0 start to the season. While many factors contribute to their success, the stellar play of reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck is undoubtedly a key driver. However, when Hellebuyck took a rare night off against Tampa Bay, with backup Eric Comrie getting the nod, sportsbooks took swift notice.
Caesars Sportsbook reported a flood of bets on the Lightning as soon as Comrie was announced, prompting them to shift the odds from a pick ’em to Tampa Bay as a -145 favorite. The result? A 4-1 Lightning win, dealing Comrie his first loss of the season. This striking example illuminates the hidden yet potent role of goaltending in shaping betting markets.
Quantifying the Goalie Effect: 3-5% Shifts in Implied Probability
So just how much can a goalie swing the odds? According to Caesars head of hockey Karry Shreeve, it’s typically in the range of 3 to 5 percent in implied probability. In concrete terms, a line may move from -120 (54.55% implied probability) to -150 (60%) or -200 (66.7%) based on a goalie change alone. While significant, Shreeve emphasizes the need to consider context and that goalies are just one piece of the complex betting puzzle.
Like anything else, it matters, but you’ve got to add context to it and sometimes it matters more than others.
Most of the time I’d say that a goalie, at most, is worth 3 to 5 percent [of implied probability]. So if it’s -120 [54.55%], maybe it goes to -150 [60%], -150 to -200 [66.7%]. But it’s all in context. It’s all team-specific, it’s situation-specific.
– Karry Shreeve, Caesars Head of Hockey
The Rise of Goalie Tandems: Minimizing Betting Impact
Interestingly, Shreeve notes that the Jets’ situation with a clear-cut starter and backup is becoming more of an outlier in today’s NHL. Many teams are gravitating towards true goalie tandems, like the Boston Bruins’ successful pairing of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark before the latter’s trade to Ottawa. In these cases, sportsbooks see minimal line movement regardless of who gets the start.
Teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Seattle Kraken, and Washington Capitals serve as prime examples of tandems where bettors would find little drop-off in perceived value between the two goalies. This trend towards 1A/1B setups helps mitigate the betting impact of goalie changes compared to teams with a stark starter/backup contrast.
A Holistic Approach: Factoring in Skaters and Situation
While the goalie impact is undeniable, both Shreeve and Johnny Avello, DraftKings Director of Sportsbook Operations, stress that it’s just one factor in establishing NHL betting lines. Avello explains that a team’s puck line and moneyline pricing is rooted in their overall rating, with the starting goalie serving as a potential adjustment factor rather than the foundation.
NHL is not like Major League Baseball where the pitcher makes all the difference. The pitcher is where the price comes from.
– Johnny Avello, DraftKings Director of Sportsbook
Oddsmakers consider a multitude of variables before even looking at the goalie matchup. The sudden absence of a superstar skater, for instance, could move the needle just as much as a switch from a starter to a backup netminder. As Shreeve puts it: “No player in hockey is worth too much more than five percent…Even though the goalie plays all 60 minutes, their impact can be absorbed by the rest of the team.”
Winning Percentage: The Key Goalie Metric for Bettors
For bettors looking to incorporate goalie analysis into their NHL handicapping, Shreeve offers valuable advice on which metrics matter most. Rather than fixating on traditional stats like save percentage and goals against average, he suggests focusing on a goalie’s winning percentage relative to his team’s overall winning percentage.
As the season progresses and larger sample sizes emerge, bookmakers will lean heavily on this metric to make wholesale adjustments to their goalie ratings and, in turn, betting lines. Whether fading teams with underperforming netminders or backing those with winning stalwarts between the pipes, this winning percentage comparison can offer valuable insights for bettors.
When we get to the quarter mark of the season, that’s when we’re really going to start seeing some of these new goalie situations form and then I’ll make moves based off of that. Whether it’s [that] we fade a team if a goalie comes in or we favor that team, it’s based on winning percentages relative to the team’s winning percentage.
– Karry Shreeve, Caesars Head of Hockey
The Bottom Line: Goalies Matter, But Context is King
The influence of starting goaltenders on NHL betting lines is a fascinating and often underappreciated dynamic. While it’s tempting to zero in on the one player who will be on the ice for the full 60 minutes, astute bettors must remember that hockey remains a true team sport. The other 18 skaters on the roster bear collective responsibility for the game’s outcome.
By striking a balance between respecting the goalie impact and considering the broader team context, hockey bettors can unlock a potential edge in what is rapidly becoming one of the sharpest and most efficient betting markets around. So the next time you see a surprise goalie announcement prior to puck drop, take a moment to process that information through the lens of team performance, opponent strength, and situational factors before rushing to hit the betting window. Your bankroll, and your bookie, will thank you.
