Week 11 of the NFL season concludes with an intriguing Monday Night Football matchup as the resurgent Houston Texans travel to face the slumping Dallas Cowboys. In a surprising twist, it’s the Texans who enter as heavy 7-point favorites on the road against a Cowboys team that has dropped four straight contests.
Houston hopes to bounce back after consecutive losses halted their momentum. The potential return of wide receiver Nico Collins from a hamstring injury could provide a major boost to C.J. Stroud and an offense that ranks in the top third of the league in yards and points per game. The rookie QB aims to carve up a battered Dallas secondary.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys find themselves in a perplexing tailspin after a promising start to the season. With Dak Prescott still sidelined, Cooper Rush will try to recapture his early magic under center. Rush passed for a meager 45 yards in an ugly Week 10 loss to the Eagles. The Texans’ well-rested defense, getting healthier by the week, looks to make life miserable for him again.
Odds & Trends Favor Houston on MNF
Several betting trends point towards the Texans having an edge on Monday night:
- The Texans are 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in the first half this season, the best mark in the NFL.
- Houston games have hit the under in 8 of 10 contests, including four straight.
- Dallas is 0-4 ATS over their last four and 1-7 ATS in their past eight overall.
- This is the Cowboys’ sixth straight game as an underdog, their longest such streak since 2015.
The total for this game is set at a paltry 41.5 points, reflecting the Cowboys’ offensive woes and the Texans’ propensity for low-scoring affairs. Both defenses will aim to assert their will early to put pressure on the opposing signal callers.
Matchups to Watch
How will the Texans attack a Cowboys defense allowing the 7th-most yards per game in the NFL? Look for a steady diet of carries for Joe Mixon against a front surrendering over 120 rushing yards weekly to opposing backs. If Mixon gets going, Stroud should have success distributing to his playmakers on the outside.
For Dallas, establishing any semblance of a ground game and offensive tempo is vital to keep Rush out of predictable passing situations. That’s a tall task versus a stout Houston front anchored by disruptive rookies like Jalen Pitre. If CeeDee Lamb(dealing with shoulder and back issues) is limited or out, Rush will have to lean heavily on Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson in the short-to-intermediate zones.
“When you’re missing core pieces on both sides, it really challenges your depth and resilience,” a source close to the Cowboys told ESPN. “Right now, the Texans are just healthier and playing more complete football. Dallas needs their stars back ASAP.”
The Texans have a golden opportunity to notch another signature win after upsets over the Chiefs and Ravens in recent weeks. Stroud and Co. appear poised to keep rolling against a short-handed opponent.
Our Pick: Texans -7 | Under 41.5 Total Points
In a battle of two teams trending in opposite directions, trust C.J. Stroud and the Texans to extend the Cowboys’ misery on Monday Night Football. Houston’s defense makes enough plays to keep Cooper Rush under duress, while Nico Collins’ return opens up the offense. We see a comfortable win for the road favorites in a low-scoring NFC-AFC tussle.
