The European Union stands at a critical juncture as a new European Commission prepares to take office. While many breathed a sigh of relief when pro-EU parties maintained their majority in this year’s European Parliament elections, a closer look reveals a seismic shift in the balance of power. For the first time in the EU’s history, right-wing parties are poised to wield unprecedented influence, marking the dawn of a new conservative era.
The Rise of the Right
The incoming European Parliament, tasked with endorsing Ursula von der Leyen’s new Commission, is the most right-leaning in EU history. More than half of its members hail from conservative factions, including the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and far-right groups like the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). This rightward tilt extends to the EU Commission and Council, signaling a break from the centrist majority that has governed Europe for decades.
A Shifting Political Landscape
Historically, EU coalitions have been built issue by issue, with no predetermined parliamentary majority. This fluidity allows the incoming Commission to potentially seek support from the far right to advance its conservative agenda, while maintaining the appearance of mainstream backing. The combined strength of far-right groups in Parliament makes them a formidable ally for the EPP, and the Council’s right-leaning composition could pressure the Commission to deviate from its stated priorities.
The Retreat from Green Policies
One early casualty of this rightward shift has been the EU’s green agenda. Faced with protests from farmers supported by far-right parties, von der Leyen abandoned the Green Deal earlier this year. Since then, a pattern of de-greening EU policy has emerged, with pushback against emissions regulations, delays in deforestation rules, and the weakening of corporate sustainability directives. This retreat underscores the growing influence of conservative forces within the Union.
The Crumbling Cordon Sanitaire
Traditionally, centrist parties have maintained a “cordon sanitaire” to exclude fringe actors from the political mainstream. However, this firewall is showing signs of strain. Far-right parties have secured key positions in the EU Parliament, and several member states now have governing coalitions that include conservative and far-right politicians. EPP leaders have engaged with hard-right MEPs, and von der Leyen has embraced controversial policies like offshore deportation centres.
The EPP refused to sign a declaration supported by socialists, greens, liberals, and the left to keep the far right “at bay” at every level. This rang alarm bells, which are getting louder by the day.
– According to a close EU source
A Pivotal Moment
As the new Commission prepares to take office, MEPs have a vital question to pose to von der Leyen and her appointees: Which political majority will they rely on and respond to over the coming five years? Will it be a far-right majority bolstered by pro-Trump conservatives and formerly fringe actors, or the mainstream forces of socialists, liberals, and greens? The answer could determine the course of the European project for years to come.
The EU stands at a crossroads, facing a choice between its founding principles of unity and progress, and a new era defined by conservative retrenchment. As right-wing parties gain unprecedented sway, the decisions made in the coming months could reshape the Union’s identity and purpose. The question remains: Will Europe embrace this rightward shift, or will it find a way to preserve the centrist consensus that has guided it for so long?
Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: The Europe of tomorrow may look very different from the one we know today. As the new Commission takes the reins, the eyes of the world will be watching to see which path the EU chooses, and what consequences that choice will have for the future of the continent and the wider world.
