As the 29th UN climate summit (Cop29) stumbles along in Baku, Azerbaijan, a group of high-level experts has delivered a damning assessment: the annual talks are no longer fit for purpose in the face of the accelerating climate emergency. “Global emissions continue to increase, carbon sinks are being degraded and we can no longer exclude the possibility of surpassing 2.9C of warming by 2100,” the group warned. Reforms are urgently needed to refocus the negotiations on concrete action rather than more hot air.
Nearly 30 Years of Stalled Progress
Despite meeting annually since 1995, the Cop summits have made painfully slow progress in addressing the climate crisis. As the expert group, which includes former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, pointed out:
Cop summits have become a byword for talk and very little action, as illustrated by the fact they have taken almost 30 years merely to agree to “transition away” from fossil fuels when a decision to have a full-blooded phasing-out has been needed desperately for decades.
Meanwhile, global temperatures keep climbing, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, and irreversible tipping points in the climate system loom ever larger. The window for avoiding catastrophic climate breakdown is rapidly closing.
Lack of Ambition in Baku
The lack of urgency was on full display as Cop29 opened in Baku last week. In his welcoming address, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev described natural gas as “a gift from God” and argued countries should not be blamed for bringing fossil fuels to market because “the market needs them.” Little progress was made on critical issues like climate finance for developing nations and enhancing emissions reduction targets.
This has been the worst first week of a Cop in my 15 years attending these summits.
Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa
Paths to Reform
To break the dangerous impasse, the expert group proposed a series of critical reforms to the Cop process:
- Exclude countries that do not support phasing out fossil fuels
- Make the summits smaller, more frequent, and focused on solving specific issues
- Introduce accountability mechanisms to ensure countries meet climate commitments
- Address the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists at the talks
While starting from scratch with an entirely new process may be tempting, the Cop summits remain the only forum where every nation has a seat at the table. The path forward is to reform the negotiations to be fit-for-purpose, not abandon them altogether.
The Dangers of Inaction
The stakes could not be higher. If global temperature rise exceeds 2°C, the consequences will be catastrophic:
- Destruction of tropical coral reefs worldwide
- Destabilization of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, causing dramatic sea level rise
- Abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost, releasing potent methane emissions
- Extreme flooding, droughts, and storms displacing hundreds of millions
Avoiding this fate requires immediately steering the global economy towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 at the latest. The Cop process must be retooled to align with that overriding goal and hold countries accountable for achieving it. As the expert group made clear, the risks of maintaining the current course are simply too great to accept. The time for tinkering around the edges and diplomatic niceties has long passed – only genuine, urgent reforms to the Cop process can help avert climate catastrophe now.
