The race for the College Football Playoff is hitting a fever pitch as we head into Week 12 of the season. With major matchups on the horizon and the clock ticking, the margin for error is razor-thin. Our panel of ESPN experts have weighed in with their latest playoff projections – and two teams are standing tall above the rest.
Oregon, Texas Hold Firm at the Top
To the surprise of few, the Oregon Ducks and Texas Longhorns continue to cling to the top two spots in our experts’ playoff picks. Oregon, led by Heisman candidate Bo Nix, has been a juggernaut all season long. The Ducks rank in the top 10 nationally in both scoring offense and defense.
Meanwhile, Texas has re-established itself as a powerhouse under head coach Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns boast statement wins over Oklahoma and TCU and control their own destiny in the Big 12. As one insider put it, “It finally feels like Texas is back, for real this time.”
The Battle for the Other Two Spots
While Oregon and Texas may have a lock on the top 2 seeds, the race for the remaining playoff berths is wide open. The Miami Hurricanes and upstart Colorado Buffaloes are two trendy picks to round out the top four.
Miami has put together an impressive bounce-back season under first-year head coach Mario Cristobal. The ‘Canes are undefeated in ACC play and boast one of the nation’s stingiest defenses. A rivalry showdown with Florida State in Week 13 could make or break their playoff hopes.
Out west, Colorado has emerged as a surprise contender behind the dynamic quarterback play of Shedeur Sanders. The Buffaloes are 8-2 and tied atop the Big 12 standings. With Coach Prime on the sidelines and a high-octane offense, this is a squad no one wants to face down the stretch.
Don’t Count Out the Big Ten
Lurking just outside the top four are a pair of dangerous Big Ten squads in Ohio State and Penn State. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions have been neck and neck all season, with each team sporting just one loss.
Ohio State boasts perhaps the most explosive offense in the nation, led by Heisman contender CJ Stroud at quarterback and a stable of speedy playmakers. But the Buckeyes have question marks on defense which could prove costly.
“Ohio State can score with anyone. But can they get enough stops against elite competition? That’s the big unknown,” according to a source close to the program.
Penn State, meanwhile, hangs its hat on a physical, hard-nosed style. With a powerful ground game and stingy defense, the Nittany Lions are built to win close games in crunch time. A season-ending clash with Michigan State could vault them into the top 4.
Keep an Eye on the Darkhorses
While the top contenders separate themselves from the pack, several darkhorse candidates are still clinging to playoff hopes. Chief among them are the resurgent Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
After a brutal start, the Irish have won 5 straight to thrust themselves back into the conversation. The return of star tight end Michael Mayer from injury has ignited the offense. And the defense, led by edge rusher Isaiah Foskey, is peaking at the right time.
Also still alive are the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs. While neither is a betting favorite to make the final four, it would be foolish to completely write off Nick Saban and Kirby Smart.
Bama has bounced back strong after an early October loss to Tennessee, reeling off three straight dominant victories. If the Tide can run the table and get some help, a playoff spot isn’t out of the question. Ditto for the ‘Dawgs, who re-established their defensive dominance in a statement win over the Vols last week.
“Don’t hand out those playoff invitations just yet. Alabama and Georgia still have a puncher’s chance. Those are two teams I definitely wouldn’t want to face with the season on the line,” a rival coach explained.
The Final Countdown
As the playoff race goes down to the wire, every game takes on added importance. The slightest slip-up can mean the difference between competing for a national title or watching from home.
Based on the latest Allstate Playoff Predictor, here are the teams with the best chance to make the final four:
- Oregon (95%)
- Texas (85%)
- Miami (60%)
- Ohio State (57%)
- Colorado (55%)
- Penn State (45%)
But as we’ve seen time and again, anything can happen in college football. The only thing that’s certain is that the next three weeks will be a white-knuckle thrill ride. So buckle up, place your bets, and enjoy the chaos as the cream rises to the top in the race for the College Football Playoff.
