In a stunning turn of events, the San Francisco 49ers, who have been favored in an unprecedented 36 straight regular season games, are on the verge of entering their Week 12 matchup against the Green Bay Packers as underdogs. The Niners’ aura of invincibility has been shaken by a spate of high-profile injuries, causing a seismic shift in the betting markets and the NFC playoff picture.
The End of an Era?
Dating back to Week 8 of the 2022 season, the 49ers have been the oddsmakers’ darlings, consistently laying points against their opponents. This remarkable 36-game streak as favorites is the third-longest in the Super Bowl era, trailing only the 1999-2002 St. Louis Rams (50) and the 2016-2020 New England Patriots (64). However, the Packers are currently 3-point home favorites for Sunday’s clash at Lambeau Field, signaling a potential changing of the guard in the NFC.
The last time San Francisco was an underdog was against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 of 2022, nearly two years ago. The Niners were 1-point underdogs in that contest and went on to lose 44-23. Now, they find themselves in the unfamiliar position of being doubted by the betting public.
Injury Bug Bites Hard
The primary catalyst for this dramatic shift in perception is the 49ers’ mounting injury woes. Quarterback Brock Purdy, the architect of their recent success, is questionable with a shoulder injury. All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) and defensive stalwart Nick Bosa (hip) are also in danger of missing the critical contest.
The Packers moved from -1.5 to -3 after reports surfaced about the 49ers’ injury situation. Sharp money immediately came in on Green Bay at -2.5.
John Murray, Executive Director of the SuperBook
If Purdy is unable to suit up, it would snap his personal streak of being favored in all 31 of his career regular season starts, the longest such streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. Backup quarterback Josh Johnson, who has bounced around the league for over a decade, would be tasked with keeping the 49ers’ playoff hopes afloat in the hostile Wisconsin winter.
NFC West Up for Grabs
San Francisco’s vulnerability has thrown the NFC West race wide open. After stumbling to a 5-5 start, the Niners (+325) now trail the upstart Arizona Cardinals (-115) in the divisional odds market. It’s a stunning fall from grace for a team that has had a vice grip on the division for the past two seasons.
The Packers, meanwhile, have hit their stride after an uneven start to the season. Winners of three straight, Green Bay has surged to the top of the NFC North standings and now has the inside track for a first-round playoff bye. A victory over their wounded rivals would solidify their status as conference frontrunners.
A Rivalry Renewed
The 49ers and Packers have a storied postseason history, with the two franchises combining for nine Super Bowl titles. They last met in the 2023 NFC Championship Game, a 38-27 thriller won by San Francisco. The Niners dominated on the ground in that contest, rushing for 285 yards and four touchdowns.
However, the complexion of this rivalry has changed dramatically in the two years since that meeting. The 49ers’ rushing attack, once the backbone of their offense, has been depleted by injuries to star running back Christian McCaffrey and key offensive linemen. The Packers’ defense, gashed in that 2023 defeat, now ranks among the league’s elite units.
This isn’t the same 49ers team that ran all over us last time. We’re playing at a different level defensively, and we know they’re banged up. It’s time for some payback.
A Packers team source
Betting Trends and Analysis
Despite their underdog status, the 49ers have been a profitable team for bettors in recent years. They’re 27-9 against the spread (ATS) in their last 36 games as favorites, good for a 75% cover rate. However, they’re just 2-5 ATS as underdogs since 2020, failing to deliver when the odds are stacked against them.
| Betting Trend | Record (ATS) | Cover % |
| 49ers as Favorites (Last 36) | 27-9 | 75% |
| 49ers as Underdogs (Since 2020) | 2-5 | 28.6% |
| Packers as Home Favorites (Since 2020) | 11-4 | 73.3% |
The Packers, on the other hand, have thrived as home favorites under head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is 11-4 ATS in that spot since 2020, covering the spread at a 73.3% clip. The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field has been a house of horrors for visiting teams, with the Packers going 15-2 straight up in their last 17 home games.
From a total points perspective, the over/under for this game sits at a modest 41.5, reflecting the potential impact of the 49ers’ offensive injuries and the Packers’ stout defense. San Francisco has gone under the total in four of their five games as underdogs since 2020, while Green Bay has gone under in six of their last eight home games.
The Verdict
While it’s foolish to completely write off a proud and talented team like the 49ers, the betting market appears to have gotten this one right. The Packers are well-positioned to exploit San Francisco’s injury-riddled roster and stake their claim as the team to beat in the NFC.
Look for a motivated Green Bay squad to control the game on both sides of the ball, pressuring the 49ers’ backup quarterback and pounding the rock on offense. The Packers’ superior health and home-field advantage should be the difference in a low-scoring, physical affair.
Prediction: Packers 20, 49ers 13
