As savvy fantasy football managers know, identifying favorable and unfavorable matchups is crucial to crafting a championship roster. Expected fantasy points against (xFPA) data offers invaluable insights into which defenses are most and least generous to each position. Leveraging this information wisely can be the difference between hoisting the trophy and languishing in the cellar.
Quarterback Matchups to Target and Avoid
The 2024 xFPA data paints an intriguing picture for quarterbacks. The Chicago Bears surrender the most expected points to opposing signal-callers, making them a dream matchup. On the flip side, the Jacksonville Jaguars are a fantasy nightmare, allowing the fewest expected points.
Streaming quarterbacks against vulnerable secondaries like the Bears can provide a huge edge.
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Other passing defenses to exploit include the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Kansas City Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New York Giants join the Jaguars as matchups to avoid if possible.
Running Backs: Voluptuous Volume vs. Stout Stoppers
Expected points data is especially valuable for the running back position, where volume and matchup quality reign supreme. The defenses most generous to enemy rushers, as measured by xFPA, include:
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Philadelphia Eagles
Chasing touch-heavy backs in these plush matchups is a proven path to RB1 production.
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Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Miami Dolphins present daunting matchups for opposing backfields. Manage workload expectations accordingly for even elite rushers in these forbidding spots.
Wide Receiver Matchups: Fruitful Vineyards vs. Lockdown Cellars
Several secondaries stand out as ripe for the picking for enemy aerial attacks. The New York Jets, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings project as the most promising matchups for wideouts based on xFPA. Astute managers will stream pass-catchers and bump up target hogs against these suspect units.
| Juiciest WR Matchups (xFPA) | Toughest WR Matchups (xFPA) |
| New York Jets | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Detroit Lions | New York Giants |
| Minnesota Vikings | Cleveland Browns |
As with quarterbacks, the Jacksonville Jaguars boast a receiver-erasing secondary best avoided if possible. The New York Giants and Cleveland Browns also present trouble for opposing wideouts.
Tight End Matchups: Promising Ports vs. Bleak Harbors
While often touchdown-dependent, tight ends can still benefit from cherry matchups. According to xFPA, the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Cleveland Browns hemorrhage the most expected points to the position. Fire up tight ends in these delectable spots, especially those commanding steady target shares.
Tight end streamers thrive on volume in sieve-like matchups like Miami or Cleveland.
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The stingiest defenses versus tight ends include the Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even elite options may struggle against these imposing units.
As the 2024 season approaches, wise managers will scrutinize xFPA data to optimize lineups and engineer trades. While not an all-encompassing metric, expected points against provides a sturdy foundation to evaluate weekly matchups and make deft roster decisions on the path to fantasy glory.
