In the ever-shifting landscape of sports betting, the only constant is the relentless pursuit of an edge. Bettors and bookmakers alike are locked in an eternal dance, each striving to outmaneuver the other. But in the unforgettable year of 2024, one side emerged with a definitive upper hand: the favorites.
The Year the Chalk Held Strong
Rarely do preseason championship favorites manage to navigate the gauntlet of a full season and emerge victorious on the other side. The rigors of a long campaign, the ever-present threat of injuries, the intense pressure of expectations – all conspire to derail even the most talented of teams. But 2024 saw a remarkable bucking of that trend.
In the NFL, NBA, and MLB, the teams christened as title favorites before the first game was even played – the Kansas City Chiefs, Boston Celtics, and Los Angeles Dodgers, respectively – all went on to capture the crown. It marked the first instance in over three decades that the chalk held serve so completely across America’s three most bet sports.
Keeping the Faith in Futures
For savvy bettors who put their faith (and their bankrolls) behind these preseason darlings, the dominance of the favorites proved immensely profitable. Sportsbooks, on the other hand, found themselves on the losing end of the proposition more often than not.
Overall for the bookmaker, it’s usually a good scenario when the favorites win. Sometimes they turn out to be more of a win than we thought, sometimes a little bit less, but we keep ’em up, we keep adjusting.
— Johnny Avello, DraftKings sportsbook director
The Celtics in particular drew waves of betting action throughout their dominant campaign, finishing as the most backed team by total wagers across all sports. Their Finals opponents, the Dallas Mavericks, were a close second, as the star power of the championship series captivated bettors and fans alike.
- Most Bet Teams of 2024:
- Boston Celtics
- Dallas Mavericks
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Kansas City Chiefs
Beyond the Big Three Leagues
The favorites’ reign extended well beyond the NFL, NBA, and MLB. In both men’s and women’s college basketball, the teams sitting atop the odds boards when March Madness tipped off – the UConn Huskies and South Carolina Gamecocks – cut down the nets when all was said and done. On the links, every one of golf’s four majors was captured by a player with pre-tournament odds shorter than 20-1, a level of chalky consistency not seen this century.
Even in sports where the eventual champions started the season with more modest expectations, the cream had risen resoundingly to the top by playoff time. The Florida Panthers entered the NHL season tied for just the 10th-shortest Stanley Cup odds, but their stellar play made them clear front-runners by the time the postseason began. Similarly, the New York Liberty weren’t the WNBA title favorites on opening night, but by season’s end their championship ascendance felt almost inevitable.
The Underdogs’ Rare Triumphs
Still, in a year utterly dominated by favorites, a few longshot champions managed to emerge. The Michigan Wolverines began the college football season at a respectable 8-1 to win the national title, but still outside the very upper echelon of contenders. In a triumphant final season under head coach Jim Harbaugh, they broke through for the program’s first national championship since 1997.
Soccer saw its share of surprise champions as well. In England, the Newcastle United stunned the Premier League with their first title in nearly a century. On the other side of the Atlantic, upstart Los Angeles Galaxy mounted a shocking run to MLS Cup glory after beginning the year as distant 33-1 outsiders. But these underdog victories were very much the exceptions that proved the chalk-flavored rule in 2024.
Lessons Learned and Questions Raised
For the betting public and the sportsbooks alike, 2024 will be remembered as the year conventional wisdom held firm. The teams and athletes expected to win, by and large, went out and won. Oddsmakers mostly got it right, installing deserving favorites and not falling victim to recency bias or prisoner-of-the-moment thinking. Bettors who hitched their wagons to the most likely winners were rewarded for their astute analysis and avoidance of long-shot temptations.
But will the favorites’ 2024 dominance prove to be a new normal or a historic anomaly? Will bettors stick to the chalk going forward or hunt for undervalued gems with greater ardor than ever? And how will bookmakers respond when setting the odds and lines? As with all things in the endlessly intriguing world of sports betting, only time – and the ceaseless competition between gambling sharp and sportsbook – will tell.
